According to the study, the global economy can even cope with Donald Trump

Global goods traffic will increase more in the next five years than in previous years. By 2029, world trade will grow by an average of around three percent a year, forecast the economists from New York University Stern School of Business (NYU Stern) in the new DHL Trade Atlas.

Despite possibly serious consequences, they expect this rate from the US president’s customs policy. The economists call several arguments why “Globalization can survive Trump 2.0”. The tug of tug of tug of tenths In the past few weeks, they expect world trade to continue to grow and grow. An indicator of this: 5000 kilometers recently covered globally, as far as ever. Returns such as Covid Pandemic and Ukraine decline had no permanent economic consequences for the flows of goods, the authors of the Trade Atlas are certain. 60 percent of the states would still be open to the trade, the customs pollution has so far decreased globally. In addition, the global flow of capital, people and information would continue to swell. “Even if the threats to the global trading system have to be taken seriously, world trade has proven to be very resistant due to the great advantages that it offers for economies and companies,” says Steven Altman, business professor at the NYU Stern Business School, which is scientifically responsible for the study. If the USA set up customs barriers, other countries would rely more on global trade. The majority of the states are rather small and, like the USA, cannot trust the strength of its own market alone. He is not worried about world trade because of the tariffs, says John Pearson, CEO of the DHL division Express at the presentation of the Trade Atlas: “Commercial policy is usually much more volatile than the trade itself.” forecast that the global economy in 2025 and 2026 should increase by 3.1 percent. However, this was dependent on the trading policy of the new US government and the economic development of China, it was said at the time. The analysts of Allianz Trade calculated in November after the presidential election of Donald Trump that higher American tariffs could cost the global economy between 0.6 and 2.4 percentage points, depending on the amount and scope of the trade barriers. Trust 25 percent. Chinese providers such as Shein, Temu and Ali Express recently benefited from this, whose low -quality goods have so far been customary in the USA or in the UK. Trump had abolished this so-called de-minimis regulation for goods below $ 800 in February, but they were established again after a few days, since delivery services were overwhelmed with customs processing. The most dynamic growth engines of world trade will be four Asian countries: India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines will be. These four are likely to grow most of the percentage and absolutely. India could therefore increase its trading turnover by seven percent or $ 484 billion by 2029, Vietnam by six percent (272 billion). India would thus rise to the third largest commercial nation and overtake Germany. The authors justify this forecast, among other things, with a strong increase in foreign investments in Indian industry. Vietnam benefits from the fact that the country is a cheap alternative to China in the region. If only the largest growth rate is looking, then with Zimbabwe, Sudan, Guyana and Georgia, countries with double -digit installments would be at the top. The value of your exports and imports is tiny on a global scale. China and the USA are still at the top in the case of absolute growth in the trade, but with three percent they are only believed to be low percentage growth. In the past five years, the growth strikers with Ireland and the United Arab Emirates have been representatives from three different world regions alongside Vietnam. And it shows that world trade is spreading to more and more shoulders: If China and the United States have been a third of global commercial growth over the past five years, they should only contribute a little more than one fifth in the next five years. However, they are not the largest world trade region. Their share of global imports is 13 percent, for exports nine percent. This is substantial, but “not sufficient to unilaterally determine the future of world trade,” write the authors of the Trade Atlas. Actually, the relative importance of the United States has decreased from 15 to ten percent since 2000 – because other regions have caught up or outdated. China in particular has tripled its share in world trade since the turn of the millennium and was able to overtake the United States before Corona pandemic. But other Asian countries have also enlarged their share. For the time being, however, the largest trade region remains Europe that contributes more than a third to world trade. According to the study, these positions are unlikely to change. Optimism for the exporting nation in Germany is also the stable European dominance. The economy of the Federal Republic is currently stagnating, not least a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. With two percent by 2029, the New York economists continue to trust the Germans only moderate growth in foreign trade. With a trading plan of $ 375 billion in five years, Germany would continue to be in the top group of the most important trading nations, behind China, USA and India. It would be “extremely extraordinary” if Germany would not experience growth in global trade again after years of stagnation. Germany will continue to be the top nations in world trade because of its sheer business size. The scientists explain this, among other things, that the German economy is geared towards export than many others. According to data from the Asian Development Bank (Asian Development Bank, ADB), the Federal Republic generates more than a third of the export, in the United States it is less than ten percent, and in China it is only around one sixth. In a higher proportion than the Germans, only the harbor of the Netherlands comes under the relevant traders. But that also means: China and the United States are less dependent on their inland markets due to the sheer size. For the trade atlas, the economists have aggregated and evaluated four forecasts of the global currency fund, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Oxford Economics and Economist Intelligence Unit. For the calculation of possible consequences of American tariffs, you have taken into account Donald Trump’s announcements in the election campaign and as president until February 2025 and also calculated possible counter -tariffs from the trading partner.

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