Coalition negotiations by the Union and SPD under green savings dictation

The fastest and most uncomplicated coalition negotiations in younger German history should be. Slim negotiation teams, narrow coalition contract, chancellor election until Easter.

In any case, the coalition has so far stated that the Chancellor Friedrich Merz was designed to be designed at the time. There is no longer any talk of slim teams, in 16 working groups there are 16 politicians each, which the bottom line is 256 negotiators. And none of the parties involved claims that the small extent of a coalition agreement is a quality feature: it is now time to do more pages than dutiful conflicts that later burden the government work. However, it has been less clear since Friday the basis on which the 256 Christian and Social Democrats and Christian Socialists actually talk and what they should fill the many sides of their contract. Because of the result of their exploration, which preceded the actual coalition negotiations, just 48 hours. The opposition Greens in the future, actually not surprisingly, said that they will not agree to the expenditure plans of the possible black and red government without adoption. On Thursday, faction leader Katharina Dröge gave a sharp speech against the designated Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Bundestag. On Friday, this was forced to go into the opposition party essentially. And to thoroughly screw up the conversations with the coalition partners CSU and SPD, but also their own plans. This text comes from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. “We agreed. That was not very easy surgery, ”said Merz at the Union faction meeting on Friday. You could say that. The negotiators had sat together at night until five in the morning, then it continued in the morning. At lunchtime, Dröge and her co-faction leader agreed with Merz, the Social Democrat Lars Klingbeil and the most experienced among the negotiators, the CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt. The FDP saw the budget negotiations last November to organize an exit from the traffic light government, Merz ‘search for a two-thirds majority is now The last opportunity to influence the course of things. And all the more as the Chancellor in Spe did not put them into the conversations early and also made negotiation offers in public. However, they prevented a shifted infrastructure investment in the new guilt-and the black and red exploratory paper from the previous weekend shredded in large parts. It was surprised that CSU chairman Markus Söder in particular did not have to laugh when he presented his negotiation success. The subsidies for the agrardiesel, the partial abolition of which gave the traffic light government the greatest peasant protests of recent times, are to fully return. The inheritance is now permanently granted to the innkeepers on VAT, which in addition to other aids should temporarily compensate for the Corona losses. And the commuters, which are particularly numerous in the Bavarian Free State, are supposed to get more money back from the tax office for their trips. And even more: Even mothers whose children were born before 1992 are now to be taken into account 36 instead of 30 months, as the younger ones. A “completion” of the mother’s pension is the CSU the project, which was originally intended to increase the number of births. Nobody in Bavaria has yet been able to explain how this should be done retrospectively for several decades. In comparison to the Billion of special debt, which the future government alliance originally targeted, these sums such as peanuts may appear. But the expression here is as inappropriate as at the time when a bank board used it for the outstanding craftsman bills of a building contractor. Because the sums are quite considerable, and they will be missing as putty between the three coalition partners. The higher commuter flat rate is estimated at 2.3 billion euros, the essential increase in electricity tax to 6.8 billion euros. Only the agrardiesel with 450 million euros is comparatively harmless, which is why one almost wonders why the traffic light alliance accepted so much trouble. The purchase bonus for electric cars, which is now to be coming back, cost around 2.4 billion euros in 2024. And the stabilization of the pension level could require a proud 34 billion euros in tax subsidies according to older calculations by the German Economy in 2035 if the upper limit for the contribution rate should continue to apply. But even if you leave out the level of pension, which only becomes really expensive after the end of the legislative period: This incomplete selection of around 20 billion euros per year sums up Project on which the exploratory team supported its unity. Could the coalition be moved to the special pot, from which 50 billion euros per year should flow into a widely defined infrastructure for a decade for a decade, then she would have waned the money for such projects. This will hardly be possible now, even if the coalition has left a small back door open: Investments are considered “additional” if it goes beyond ten percent of the federal budget. This is a little less than it has been spent on it. “We will relieve the wide middle class through an income tax reform,” says only vague in the exploratory paper. And: “We are entering a corporate tax reform in the upcoming legislative period.” That sounds more reluctant than in the Union election program, in which there was not only talk of getting started and also not just about the middle class. Various business institutions had calculated in the election campaign that the tax failures by the Union plans in the end added to around a hundred billion euros a year. There is no longer any talk of that now. But a tax reform would no longer be a tax reform if it did not cost the federal government a significantly double -digit billion amount per year. And possibly to get the whole thing through the Federal Council, there is also a compensation for the federal states. The decision to generous special debts also ripened in the exploratory talks because the incumbent finance minister Jörg Kukies had spoke there. At 130 to 150 billion euros, he put the upgraded budget gap until 2028. You have to break down to the individual years, and the sums are lower than at the end. However, it is clear: Even without additional expenses for mother’s pension, commuter flat rate or gastroubvention, a double -digit billion amount is missing every year. Saving on the citizens ‘allowance is not enough to remove the conversion of the citizens’ allowance and a lower number of asylum seekers will not be sufficient to raise these sums, that was clear to the base from the beginning. This is also why they fell into the idea of ​​putting on the special pots for the military and infrastructure so generously that some of their other wishes also fit in. Now it stays with one percent. Since the German gross domestic product is more than four trillion euros, it is easy to calculate that the coalition would otherwise have had to raise at least 20 billion euros more out of the ordinary federal budget instead of simply taking out loans. A certain relief now even results from the green wish to include expenses for civil protection or the intelligence services to the debt brake exception for the defense. And then the Federal Constitutional Court will still announce its decision on the solidarity surcharge on March 26, three days after the coalition working groups actually want to complete their work. It may be that you have to open the chapter on the tax issues again. Finally, the federal government is planning income of almost 13 billion euros from the tax charging for better earners in the current year. This impression was promoted by the support that the Greens’ insistence on the budget discipline of parts of the CDU economic wing. But it is not at all, at least not necessarily. First of all, Merz will get a new problem with the Bavarian CSU, the special requests of which from the mother’s pension to gastro tax can hardly be financed under the new circumstances. And then possibly his own plans for lower taxes that are seen in the SPD with skepticism anyway – at least as far as they affect the better earners. You really start now.

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