Coalition negotiations on social policy: after the traffic light on the left?

Three million unemployed people, one million long -term unemployed, these numbers show that something goes wrong on the labor market. And if you think you can correct this through a few changes to the citizens’ allowance, you better look at the following figures: wholesale minus 15 percent, hospitality industry minus 15.

5 percent, mechanical engineering minus 21 percent. This is how the range of open jobs is currently falling there compared to the stand a year ago. Whether industrial group or small business, the demand for personnel shrinks in the entire width of the economy. But what kind of political change have the black and red coalition negotiators have for labor market and social policy? The social security contributions rise to 50 percent of the gross wage even faster because additional money is to flow from the value creation cycle to pensioners. The increase in labor costs is further tightened with the statutory minimum wage; The specification of 15 euros leads to an increase of 50 percent in four years. And those companies that could try to compensate for non-market cost spurts In order to make state orders from the 500-billion euro debt pot, a deterrent new “tariff loyalty” bureaucracy should be put into the way. that with the legal limits of flexible working time models you may go a little less beyond European law requirements than this is the case in this country; And that you want to change the citizens’ allowance, it probably boils down to put this basic security again in the state of the traffic light coalition. In any case, incentives for overtime and harder sanctions for citizen benefit recipients who reject work will use little as long as the demand for workforce is paralyzing; As long as many companies reduce positions and hesitate to enter into new employment relationships because they fear that this would not pay off. All would be easier, companies could recognize a political departure for new dynamics. The higher the trust in the course, the less it depends on when exactly what is in the Law Gazette. The basic condition for this would be a plausible strategy against cost spurts, bureaucracy and uncovered future burdens; It is best combined with a credible entry into the “Bildungs ​​Republic of Germany”. Yede Hope for such a signal was destroyed by the exploratory plans for pension policy in the beginning. And it is not even the case that the Union side was forced at this high price in order to escape the SPD in a delicate world situation in a delicate world situation. The latter wants to switch off the demographic factor that stabilizes the pension in aging society under the cozy term “secure pension level”. The next stage of the “mother’s pension” was pushed through by the CSU. Until then, there was only doubts as to whether the policy change announced before the election, this step provides proof. In debt: One and a half trillion euros for the discussion, if you only consider the cost effect, the mother’s pension is about “peanuts” of around 50 billion euros in the next twenty years, compared to 500 billion euros, which is eliminated the demographic factor for the value creation forces of the economy withdraw. Politically, however, the CSU project now unfortunately absorbs large parts of the attention that would have to be directed to whether the inclusion of additional government debt of almost a trillion euro is actually the right occasion to distribute uncovered pension promises of another half a trillion euro. Euro, which today’s and future generations of workers and entrepreneurs should work through without anything gets into their account. Dandals as the failed pension package of the traffic lights do not even provide for the plans of Schwarz-Rot, at least partially to dampen the costs of their promises with a mechanism such as generation capital. If the designated Chancellor Friedrich Merz does not have an unknown magic formula in his pocket, it really takes a lot of optimism to believe that such a U -turn can succeed in growing new growth.

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