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End of Assad regime in Syria, what will be its impact on India

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Bashar al-Assad has lost power in Syria and with this India has also lost an important partner in the Middle East. A partner which took years to bring together and this partnership was built amidst the opposition of the world, however now this partnership has ended. Even if India’s stand on Kashmir is supported by Syria or India’s Israel. To support Syria’s claim on the occupied Golan Heights. Both the countries worked together to strengthen their mutual relations. Both the countries had achieved independence in the 1940s, hence diplomatic relations between the two countries were established in 1950. The then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru visited the Syrian capital for the first time in 1957 while on his way to the United States. From Damascus’s support for New Delhi’s position on Kashmir to New Delhi’s support for Damascus’s claim on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Till date, both countries have worked together to strengthen bilateral relations. Both countries gained independence in the 1940s, with official diplomatic relations established in 1950. The then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru first visited the Syrian capital in 1957 while visiting the United States. This was the beginning of a friendship that faced many political storms in the times to come. During the Arab–Israeli conflict in the 1970–80s, India advocated for Syrian rights and in return, unlike other countries in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Damascus supported India’s position on Kashmir. This move thwarted Pakistan’s efforts to get support. At the height of the Syrian civil war, India, in a gesture of friendship, decided to maintain its embassy in the country. The embassy was closed only briefly in 2015 when attacks in Damascus increased. In 2012, India also refused to support sanctions against Syria at the United Nations, which further strengthened diplomatic ties. What is at stake for India in Syria? Over the years, New Delhi has made efforts to strengthen bilateral ties. And to take advantage of its strategic location, it has invested heavily in Damascus’ infrastructure and development projects. In 2009, New Delhi offered Damascus a $240 million line of credit for the expansion of the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant. This 2 x 200 MW project was developed by Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited (BHEL). In 2004, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) partnered with IPR International for oil exploration. It jointly acquired a 37% stake in a Canadian firm operating in Syria in collaboration with China’s CNPC. To aid Syria’s economic recovery, New Delhi has supported initiatives in sectors such as education, agriculture and information technology (IT). Under the ‘Study in India’ programme, India offered 1,500 seats to Syrian students in various degrees between 2017–18. Bilateral trade between the two countries reached $100 million from 2020 to 2023. What next? The country-wide rebels are led by the Islamist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, along with a group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias. Which is also called the Syrian National Army. India will have to proceed with caution given Turkey’s role in this equation, especially considering Turkey’s critical stance against India on the Kashmir issue. At this point in time, it is difficult to predict whether Syria will What will be the situation in India and what will be its impact on India-Syria relations. But one thing is certain that new alliances will be formed, old ones will break but India will have to move forward carefully in the changing circumstances.

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