The global warming caused by the greenhouse gases expelled by the human being – mainly, with the burning of fossil fuels – does not turn back. In fact, what is expected for the next five years is that “temperatures continue at record or near them”, according to a report presented on Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization (OMM). This “will increase the risks and climatic impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development,” warns this organization linked to the UN and brings together the weather services of almost two hundred countries. The report presented instead of analyzing what happened already – as 2024 closed as the hottest year recorded so far – focuses on what will happen in the immediate future due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, whose concentration does not stop increasing and is at levels never seen in at least 800,000 years. The experts of the United Kingdom Meteorological Service (MET Office), which coordinates the 14 institutions that participate in this study, forecast from computer models that the annual temperatures of the 2025-2029 five-year period are between 1.2 and 1.9 degrees Celsius greater compared to preindustrial levels (that is, the average of the period 1850-1900). 2024 – with a heating already 1.55 – was so far the warmest year. But the authors of the report bet on a short reign: they argue that there is a “80% probability that at least one of the next five years exceeds 2024 as the warmest registered”. The researchers remember that the last 10 years (2015-2024) have been individually the most warm years since there are records-direct measurements start 175 years ago, but many of the paleoclimatologists last millennia there is no trace of temperatures above the current ones. It was precisely in December 2015 when the Paris Agreement against climate change was signed. This pact marks as an objective that global warming does not exceed the barrier of the 2 degrees of increase with respect to pre -industrial levels, and as far as possible below 1.5. The OMM report indicates that there is a “86% probability that at least one of the next five years has a higher temperature at more than 1.5 degrees to the average of 1850-1900 ″, as happened with 2024. In addition, it points to a very low possibility (1%) of overcoming the barrier of the 2 degrees. In any case, the objective that established the Paris agreement, explained the OMM, was not for the OMM. Individuals, but for the average of two decades, which officially cannot be breached. 1.5 degrees was almost nil. The trend is the background concern, which is important to highlight. I think that 2024 works as a siren, ”explained the OMM secretary, Celeste Saulo, in an interview with El País a couple of months ago. The alarms are playing throughout the planet. Also in Spain, where 2024 had“ an extremely warm character ”and was the third most hot year of the historical series, behind 2022 and 2023, according to the last balance released by the State Agency of Meteorology (AMET). (tagstotranslate) Environment
