Image source, Getty Images Image caption Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now worried about his legacy. …inAuthor, Caroline HawleyDesignation, BBC CorrespondentDecember 13, 2024, 10:35 ISTUpdated 2 hours agoOn the floor of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, posters of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are hung amid broken glass and trampled flags. Among them are torn photographs of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement. Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut in September. The turquoise tiles outside the embassy are still shining, but Iran’s highly influential former A large banner of military Revolutionary Guard commander Qasim Soleimani has also been destroyed. Qassem Soleimani was killed on Donald Trump’s orders, during his first presidential term. All of this is a reminder that the defeats that Iran has endured in recent years culminated in the assassination on Sunday of its key ally, Syrian President Bashar al- This has happened in the form of Assad’s departure to Russia, Iran is nursing its wounds, and Donald Trump is preparing to assume the presidency again. In such a situation, would he want to start talks with the West once again? Have all these developments weakened Iran’s system? Image source, AFP via Getty Images Image caption, A man walks over a torn photograph of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Damascus. Next is a picture of Iran’s late General Qassem Soleimani. In his first speech since Assad’s overthrow, Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei claimed, “Iran is strong and powerful – and now it is even stronger. It will be done.” Khamenei, who has ruled the country since 1989, is currently facing challenges to his succession. In his speech, he stressed that Iran in the Middle East The ‘circle of resistance’ of the NDA-led alliance will become even stronger. This coalition of Iran includes Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iraqi Shia militias. He said, “The more pressure you put, the stronger the resistance will be. The more atrocities you commit, the stronger it will become.” But Iran welcomed the massacre of Hamas in Israel on October 7, 2023. But after the latest changes, Tehran’s power seems to be shaken. Israel’s retaliatory action against its enemies has changed the Middle East to a great extent. And because of this, Iran is largely on the back foot. James Jeffrey, a former US diplomat and deputy national security adviser, now works at the Wilson Center think-tank. “All the pieces are falling one after another,” he says. Israel has broken its axis. The events in Syria have destroyed it. Iran still has no real representative in the region except the Houthi rebels. The neighboring country gives full support to the powerful militia in Iraq. But according to Jeffrey, “This is an unprecedented collapse of a power that wields considerable influence in the region.” Syria’s ousted President Bashar al-Assad was last seen in public on December 1 in a meeting with the Iranian foreign minister . At the time, Assad had vowed to “crush” the rebels advancing towards the Syrian capital. Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, described Assad as standing “at the forefront of the axis of resistance.” Despite this, when Assad’s sudden fall What happened was that Iran appeared incapable and unwilling to fight in its support. Within a few days, the only country in the ‘Axis of Resistance’ slipped out of Iran’s hands. How did Iran create its networkIran It has spent decades building a network of armed groups to maintain influence in the region, as well as to defend against a possible Israeli attack. Its history begins with the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution, followed by the conflict with Iraq. Bashar al-Assad’s father Hafez supported Iran in the war. Image source, IRANIAN PRESIDENCY / HANDOUTImage caption, Bashar al-Assad meets Ali Khamenei The alliance between Shia clerics in Iran and Assad had helped strengthen Iran’s power base in the predominantly Sunni-dominated Middle East. The Assad family is a member of the minority Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam. Syria was a main route for Iran to deliver weapons to Lebanon, Hezbollah and other regional armed groups. Iran had earlier also come to help Assad. When Assad appeared vulnerable after the uprising during the Arab Spring in 2011 turned into a civil war, Tehran provided him with its fighters, fuel and weapons. In addition, more than 2,000 deployed in Syria as ‘military advisors’ Iranian soldiers and generals were also killed. Dr. Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa at the think tank Chatham House, says, “We know that Iran has It has spent $30 billion to $50 billion since around 2011.”Now the route through which Iran could, in the future, send weapons and aid to Hezbollah and other groups in Lebanon has been closed.Dr. The lawyer argues, “The axis of resistance was an opportunistic network that gave Iran a strategic advantage. It was designed to avoid direct attack from Iran. Clearly, this was a strategy that failed.” DishImage source, Mohsen Shandiz/Corbis via Getty Images Image caption Iranian students at a demonstration protesting Western efforts to limit its nuclear research program. Now Iran’s priority will be to maintain its existence.Dr. “He will try to re-establish himself, consolidate what’s left of the axis of resistance,” says the lawyer. Dennis Horak spent three years in Iran as a Canadian diplomat. “The Iranian government has a lot of power,” he says. And they can still achieve a lot.” He argues that Iran still has serious firepower. And in case of conflict with Israel, it can use it against the Arab countries of the Gulf. Dennis Horak cautions against any view of Iran as a paper tiger.Dr. “Iran will definitely re-evaluate its defense policies,” says the lawyer. Till now, the axis of deterrence was at the center of these policies. “Iran can also rethink its nuclear program. It can decide that its security It has to invest more in this program.” Nuclear Capacity Image Source, Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images Image Caption, Iran’s nuclear power plant in Bushehr, located on the Persian Gulf. Iran says this But insists that its nuclear program is completely peaceful. But Donald Trump had withdrawn from the nuclear deal made by Western countries with Iran in 2015. After that, Iran’s nuclear activities were limited. Under the agreement, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to a purity of 3.67%. Low-enriched uranium can be used to produce fuel for commercial nuclear power plants. The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says Iran is now increasing that rate. And now it can produce uranium enriched up to 60%. Iran has said that it is doing this in response to the sanctions that Trump had imposed. Nuclear weapons can be made from uranium only when it is enriched 90% or more. IAEA chief, Rafael Grossi, feels that Iran is doing this because of changing regional equations. Daria, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Royal United Services Institute think tank Dolzikova says, “This is a really worrying picture. The nuclear program has reached a completely different place from where it was in 2015.” According to an estimate, if Iran wanted, it would now be about a We can enrich enough uranium to make a nuclear weapon in a week. But once the weapon is made, it will need a warhead to deliver it to the target, which can take up to a year to make. Dolzikova says, “We Don’t know how close they are to making nuclear weapons capable of reaching the target, but in the meantime, no one has taken away the knowledge gained through research about these weapons. Could.” This is the reason for the concern of Western countries. Image source, AFP via Getty Images Image caption, A rebel fighter tearing down a giant poster of Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo. Dr., senior researcher at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies and Tel Aviv University Raz Zimmt says, “It is clear that Trump will try to implement his pressure strategy again on Iran.” We can also try to persuade the US to limit its nuclear capabilities. For this, Trump can also start fresh talks.” According to Dr. Zimmt, it has to be seen what Donald Trump does and what Iran does in response. But it is not likely that Iran will choose the path of military confrontation. Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at Tehran University, says, “I think Donald Trump will try to make another agreement after talks with Iran. If this does not happen, Trump will return to his ‘maximum pressure’ strategy.” Nasser Hadian believes that there is ‘more possibility of agreement than conflict’. He says, “If Trump uses ‘maximum pressure’ If you choose the path of, then there may be a mess. As a result, war may also occur and obviously neither side would want this.” Widespread Guss Image source, Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images Image caption The number of women in Iran who are openly violating the hijab law is increasing. These The picture is of 17 September 2024. Just two years before this, Mahsa Amini had died in police custody for not wearing hijab. Iran is also facing many domestic challenges. The reason for this is that Iran’s supreme leader is searching for a successor. According to Dr. Khamenei, he worries about his legacy. Khamenei would like to leave Iran in a stronger position. There were protests across Iran after the death of Mahsa Zina Amini in 2022 for not wearing hijab properly. There is still anger against the Iranian regime. People say that there is unemployment and inflation in the country but the country’s resources are being used for war abroad. The young generation of Iran, 1979 Increasingly alienated from the Islamic revolution, many women are increasingly irritated by government-imposed social restrictions, meaning they even risk arrest if they go out without covering their hair. It is not at all certain that the Iranian regime will collapse like Syria. Jeffrey says, “I do not think that the Iranian people will come to the streets if Syria collapses. Horak believes that as Iran seeks to increase internal security, its tolerance for dissent will decrease further. A law punishing women who do not wear the hijab there is soon to be implemented. But Horak does not believe that Iran’s government is in any danger at the moment. He says, “Millions of Iranians do not support this regime, but there are millions of people who still fully support it.” There is no danger of it falling.” But domestic anger and the defeat in Syria have made the job of Iran’s rulers a little difficult. Published by Collective Newsroom for the BBC.
