When the parliamentary managing director of the CDU/CSU faction, especially after Easter, collapsed with journalists for breakfast, he also spoke about the personnel speculation that political Berlin flood these days. Thorsten Frei (CDU) said that everything he reads about the staff, one of the future ministers, are only assessments, conjectures and “plausibility considerations”, but they do not make up for, at least not in detail. Therefore, there will be “certainly surprises”. Such could now be emerging at the head of the future faction: with the possible rise of Jens Spahn. At least this is intensively assessed, made and plausibility. It is safe that the previous Union faction chairman Friedrich Merz has back from Easter vacation and intensive days ahead. On May 6th, he is to be elected Chancellor, and the SPD members will coalition contracts until the middle of next week, and on Monday delegates of the CDU come together for a small party conference, the Federal Committee, in Berlin, in order to be also on the coalition agreement. Approval is considered certain, but it is also expected that the last pieces of the puzzle will now fall into the picture: the personnel decisions. In addition to the question of who becomes the Minister for the CDU, it is crucial who enforces the policy of the Chancellor and his government at the head of the parliamentary group. Is it Jens Spahn? At least there are no objections to the personnel at the CSU in Munich and Berlin. Spahn itself and his environment are silent about the speculation. In addition to the head of the Federal Chancellery, Merz has to occupy six ministerial posts: economy, foreign, education, health, transport and digitization. It is no secret that the freelance parliamentary group chair is particularly attractive outside the cabinet. Neither is interest in the position. However, an argument against him was always presented in the Berlin plausibility considerations: Why should Merz trust such an ambitious party friend – and entrust this important position to him? Spahn was once Merz ‘opponents were once set these days when hardly anything is set, but mostly showed that the 44 -year -old Spahn had to receive a post. Even if he would be another North Rhine-Westphalia in the first row. And although his relationship with Merz was not always easy. Already in the competition for the 2018 party chair, they competed against each other, and in 2020 Spahn Armin Laschet supported in competition with Merz. It was only when Laschet failed that Merz made it to the party leadership – and then secured the parliamentary group chair. Spahn had just had a more difficult time than Minister of Health, combined with a rough journey in the popularity of the popularity. At that time there are said to have been said to have been discussed in the small circle to find each other. Spahn quickly found step again, he is considered a sharp rhetorician and good networker. However, not least in their own ranks as someone who polarizes. For example, with statements such as the one to the AfD, with which, according to Spahn, you should deal with organizational questions in the Bundestag as well as other opposition parties. In the past few days, Spahn has had a lot to do with making it clear that he did not talk the party to the normalization. He was not intended by Merz in the original exploratory group of the CDU. Then it was immediately about the finances and the idea of reforming the debt brake – and because Spahn as State Secretary under Wolfgang Schäuble had already experienced the Ministry of Finance from the inside, he was added. Spahn stayed with it and made it into the round of the main negotiators of the coalition agreement. Even before the Bundestag election, the Munich Security Conference noticed that Merz Spahn had won his side with important conversations. So the impression was solidified that Merz hardly let him go out empty. Carsten Linnemann could have been one, but he has already made it clear that he wanted to remain general secretary. Thorsten Frei, on the other hand, has long been traded as Minister of Chancellor, even if the surprises he mentioned is also not excluded with a view to his future. At least much more candidates do not seem to impose themselves. Sure is not yet. The “Bild” newspaper reported shortly before Easter, citing CDU and CSU circles that Spahn should become parliamentary group leader. This is Merz’s wish. Just like Spahn, however, the environment of Merz does not comment on these speculations. There are no clear quotes, in the end there are only voices. After all, it can be heard from some that all the decisions should be made very soon – and their result may already be presented to the Federal Committee on Monday. That would be before the SPD, which their ministers only wanted to present after the membership survey. If this happens, the crucial calls should be received at the weekend. Frei had also said that Merz would have completed his considerations in the coming days. He does not make this out with himself in silent combing, but also incorporates other assessments, also from the countries. On the one hand, the members of the state group have also been added to the CSU board meeting on Monday-always a sign that it becomes important. On the other hand, it was said on Thursday from CSU boss Markus Söder that his party would support Spahn as leader of the parliamentary group. The support from Bavaria is not surprising. Spahn is not only a professional in the party, but also as a guarantee that future cabinet resolutions for economic and, above all, migration policy in the Bundestag are not watered down. Neither in Bavarian CSU circles nor in the CSU national group could be heard on Thursday. A consideration of the CSU is that one can then turn migration policy out of one cast: with Merz in the Chancellery, Dobrindt as the Interior Minister and Spahn, who is considered the opponent of Angela Merkel’s refugee policy, at the head of the parliamentary group. It is not the case that no sheet of paper would fit between Spahn and the CSU, especially in pandemic, Söder drove the then Minister of Health in front of him from time to time. In the CSU, however, it has already been registered in the election campaign that Spahn is strikingly often in Bavaria, also to maintain contacts, but it certainly does well to remain silent until everything is really cleared and announced by Merz. After all, he has already experienced how dramatic the last hours can go when all the assessments, conjectures and plausibility considerations actually follow decisions. In 2018 Spahn was able to believe briefly that he would be the new Minister of Defense. Until it became Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.
Jens Spahn: The plausible parliamentary group leader
