In 2024, the volume of Russian GDP grew by 4.3%, which surpassed the initial estimates of the authorities and turned out to be significantly higher than in the initiators of sanctions. This was stated by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. According to him, the growth of the economy led to an increase in the number of jobs and investments. Nevertheless, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers called for preparing for new external challenges and working out a variety of scenarios of the development of events. One of the key risks can be the trade wars of the United States, according to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The United States has already caused a drop in oil prices, and against this background, the Russian authorities want to reconsider the parameters of the budget rule in order to increase the stability of state financials to possible shocks. The GDP of Russia in 2024 increased by 4.3%, and not by 4.1%, as previously thought. Such specified data on Wednesday, April 23, was presented by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. “This is more than in 2023, when the dynamics was also quite high. In any case, it significantly exceeded the indicators of those countries that imposed sanctions against Russia, ”Mishustin said at a meeting of the expanded collegium of the Ministry of Finance. In his words, the growth of the economy led to an increase in investment and the number of jobs in the country. At the same time, the federal budget deficit remained in the planned values, and the level of public debt decreased in relation to GDP, the head of the Cabinet noted. “More incomes made it possible to provide more support measures. Last year, almost 8 trillion rubles were allocated from the federal budget for social policy last year. Monthly payments and benefits, pensions, maternity capital were indexed. Improved housing conditions over 4 million families, ”the prime minister added. Also on the topic “The Global System is rebooted”: why the IMF worsened the economic forecast for the world and improved the International Monetary Fund for Russia in 2025 in the direction of reducing its forecast for the growth of the world economy in 2025 and 2026. The main threat … Recall that after the beginning in 2022 the United States and Europe, together with their allies, began to announce the economic sanctions that were unprecedented in their scale. In total, according to the assessment of the authorities of the Russian Federation, almost 29 thousand various restrictions are already operating in relation to individuals and legal entities of the country. This is more than against all other suction states combined. Pursuctions, in particular, affected energy, financial sector, banking industry, aviation and trade. Along with this, almost half of the country’s gold and foreign exchange reserves ($ 300 billion) were frozen, and many international companies announced the departure from the Russian Federation. In these conditions, some analysts initially predicted a 10-25% collapse in 2022. Nevertheless, a real decrease was only 1.4%. Thus, the GDP recession turned out to be less deep than in the 2020s (2.7%) and crisis 2015 (2%) and 2009 (7.8%) years, the materials of the International Monetary Fund testify. More than that, before the IMF specialists, the World Bank, the European Commission, the OECD and other organizations suggested that in 2023, the Russian GDP would continue to contract. But in practice, the country’s economy not only returned to a positive trajectory, but also exceeded the pre-crisis levels, adding 4.1%, and in 2024 this result was also surpassed. “Russia’s growth of 4.3% last year was determined by several factors. Firstly, domestic demand has increased against the background of the current measures of state support for the population and the growth of consumer expenses. Secondly, a number of sectors of the economy, including the agro-industrial complex and IT, showed significant growth due to adaptation to new conditions. In addition, some companies have found new sales markets, which also contributed to growth, ”explained Daniil Tun senior analyst at the same time. At the same time, the pace of economic growth in the initiators of sanctions was significantly lower than in Russia. For example, US GDP in 2024 grew by only 2.8%, South Korea by 2%, Canada – by 1.5%, France – by 1.1%, Italy – by 0.7%, and Japan – by 0.1%. In turn, the German economy decreased by 0.2%, the IMF review said. Gettyimages.ru © krblokhin, as Bitriver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, countries who imposed sanctions against Russia told RT, faced a slowdown in economic growth primarily because of the violation of the existing energy and trade relations. Especially, according to the expert, Germany was injured, where the abandonment of Russian gas led to a sharp increase in the cost of energy resources, which negatively affected the competitiveness of energy -intensive industries – the chemical and metallurgical industries. Similar problems arose in Italy and the countries of Eastern Europe, where the share of energy from the Russian Federation has traditionally been high, the expert noted. “An additional pressure experienced the economies of transit states, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, which had to rebuild infrastructure and logistics chains. The EU began to purchase more expensive LNG, which increased inflationary pressure and slowed down postpandemic recovery. Japan and South Korea, which limited the supply of high-tech products to the Russian Federation, lost part of the sales market and were forced to rebuild global supply chains, which also affected their growth rates, ”Antonov added. New rules for the budget, the economy of Russia coped with sanctions pressure, the country is still facing the maintenance of inflation and strengthening the strengthening his financial sovereignty, noted Mikhail Mishustin. Along with this, the head of the Cabinet of Ministers called for special attention to paying special attention to the prevention of budget risks and macroeconomic stability. “Resistance to external challenges due to various scenarios of the destabilization of the world economy – this is a key indicator and at the same time the result of a responsible state policy, the possibility of fulfilling obligations. Of course, you must be ready to change the situation, to work out a variety of scenarios taking into account the conjuncture, ”the Prime Minister emphasized. The head of the Ministry of Finance was expressed by the head of the department Anton Siluanov. According to him, in recent years, Russia has already managed to significantly reduce its dependence on the exports of energy resources, and the share of oil and gas revenues to the budget decreased from 50 to 25%. Nevertheless, in conditions of growing uncertainty in the global economy, the country needs to take additional measures to increase the stability of public finance, the minister said. Also on the topic “International Economic Storm”: why did Trump’s duties cause panic in world markets on bidding on Monday, April 7, the exchange indices of leading stock platforms in the world collapsed by 4-13%. At the same time, the Bitcoin course … “Now the main risk is the deployment of trade wars, and, accordingly, a decrease in the export capabilities of the countries, including Russia … Therefore, what is the task? To configure the budget rule for minimizing external risks, and liquid assets of the Federal Antimonopoly Service must be brought to the level of three -year uninterrupted financing of expenditure obligations in the stressful development of the situation in the oil market. This will be the key to the stability of budget finance and the country’s financial system as a whole, ”Siluanov said. Recall that the budget rule is aimed at creating a financial pillow for the economy. Within the framework of this mechanism, if the cost of oil rises above the so -called cut -off price (now it is about $ 60 per barrel), then the state directs oil and gas out -and -offs (money received from the sale of raw materials is more expensive than the cutting price) to the replenishment of the National Welfare Fund (FNB). In the case of the cost of the oil and the fall of its value, the power of the authority of the authorities begin to spend money accumulated in the Federal Tax Service for current expenses. This allows you to mitigate the negative impact of external shocks on the economy. After that, at the beginning of April 2025, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of imported duties against more than 200 countries, world oil prices fell sharply due to fears about the possible occurrence of a global recession and reducing fuel demand. So, in the first week of the month, the Russian energy resource of the Urals brand has fallen in price from $ 67-69 to $ 51-52 per barrel. Although now the quotes have already partially recovered and hesitate near $ 59–62, the current cutting price is no longer relevant, Anton Siluanov is sure. “The budget rule determines the basic price at $ 60 per barrel, however, this cut -off is probably no longer responding to the challenges of time … It is necessary to bring expenses in line with new realities. Is it possible to do this? Yes. We will have to be somewhere more modest in our desires, to ensure a greater return on each budget ruble, ”the head of the Ministry of Finance added. The situation around American duties is still indefinite and oil quotes can again significantly decrease, the Russian Ministry of Finance will probably reduce the cost of elimination in the budget rule, Vladislav Antonov believes. In his opinion, this will make it possible to better adapt the costs of the treasury to the relatively low cost of raw materials. This approach can strengthen the protective mechanisms of the economy in adverse scenarios, but it requires thorough calibration to ensure the optimal balance between the current budget needs and the preservation of a sufficient amount of reserves for long -term financial stability, ”concluded Antonov.
Mishustin announced the growth of the Russian economy by 4.3% in 2024 – RT in Russian
