Damascus: On December 8, armed groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Damascus, ending the 54-year rule of the Assad family in Syria. Given HTS’s history with organizations like Al Qaeda and ISIS and Syria’s geographical location, the incident in Syria could see major changes in West Asia. So far, Arab countries have reacted cautiously to Syria’s changes. They want to see the functioning of HTS before forming any opinion. At the same time, Israel has occupied the Golan Heights, defying international rules. This has been condemned by Arab countries and the UN. According to The News Arab report, Arab countries will proceed cautiously with Syria and want to build good relations with the new government. Marco Cornellos, who has been Italy’s ambassador to Iraq, says that this is the biggest geopolitical change since the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. Not all Arab countries will react the same but all will be affected in some way or the other. At the same time, its impact is clearly visible on Turkey and Iran. Arab countries will have to change their policy. In the last few years, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE had increased relations with the Assad government of Syria. The UAE normalized relations with Syria in 2018. Syria returned to the Arab League in May 2023. While Assad was touring Arab countries from 2022, many Arab officials also visited Damascus. Arab countries started accepting Assad again. In such a situation, now these countries will have to change their foreign policy according to the new reality of Syria. Arab countries like UAE, Saudi and Egypt are worried that the victory of HTS will strengthen radical groups. Now that HTS, which originated from Al Qaeda, has taken control of Syria, other groups will also be encouraged by it. Eleonora Ardemagni, associated with ISPI, says that there is concern about the future of Syria in the UAE. He is emphasizing on the threat coming from armed groups. How big a threat is HTS to the Arab countries? The HTS government in Syria can also be an ideological threat to the Arab countries because this group believes in fundamentalist ideology. Despite this, countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE will have to build good relations with the new Syrian government. What worries Arab countries most is the increase in instability in West Asia due to the rise of HTS. This may spread new conflicts in the region. Arab leaders do not want the chaos to extend beyond Syria to Jordan and other Gulf countries. After the fall of Assad, Israel has started attacking and occupying land in Syria. This can also become a cause of difficulty. The Arab League has issued a statement condemning this and said that this will make it difficult to restore security in Syria. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey and Russia have called for an orderly political transition in Syria in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Former US diplomat Ferial Saeed says, ‘The fall of Assad will mark the Arab world. There is a geopolitical earthquake. At present, Arab countries do not want the conflict in Syria to increase and its impact on neighboring countries. Political change in Syria with the help of UN is very important. If a legitimate and inclusive government is formed, the chances of conflict will reduce.
