The IBEX 35 clings to the 13,000 points with the impulse of the German stimulus plan | Financial markets

Investors begin to be tired of so bad news and take advantage of any loophole to leave sales aside. The agreement between conservatives, social democrats and green in Germany to activate the combined stimuli package, the possibility that the USA avoids the closure of the administration and hopes of reaching peace in Eastern Europe serve as a counterpoint to the increase in commercial tensions.

The IBEX 35 clings to the 13,000 points and rises 1.43% on Friday, profits that make up, but fail to erase the weekly losses. In the last five days, a period that has been marked by the tariff crossing and the bad taste that left the results of Inditex, the Spanish stock market goes back 1.9%. The textile group is left 11%, its worst week in five years, coinciding with the beginning of the great confinement. Friday optimism means much less than the risks have disappeared. In the last days the market has attended a constant change of direction in commercial matters confirming that the tariff war has done nothing more than start. After the entry into force of the taxes to aluminum and steel, Canada and the EU showed that they will not keep their arms crossed and responded to the envy with rates on US products worth 45,000 million euros. Trump showed again his belligerence and announced that he will impose a 200% tariff to wine and European spirits. The tariff crossing has re -tests the patience of investors and threatens to deteriorate an American economy that begins to give the first deceleration signals. The recession drums return to the first line while protectionist policies are seen as a clear inflationary risk. Ibex 35 behavior followed the wake of the rest of European indices. Just 24 hours after the markets had to digest the possibility that peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia were in dead points, the US president has assured that the conversations held with their Russian counterpart had been very productive. The Republican believes that there are still possibilities that war will come to an end. The hopes of peace and the millionaire investments that would help revitalize the anemic German economy translated into 1.86% profits for the Dax, an index that has to be erased the weekly losses (-0.1%). The rest of the bags did not want to miss the party and opted for the climbs. The French CAC adds 1.13% on Friday; the British FTSE, 1%; The Stoxx 50 euro, 1.42% and Italian MIB, 1.73%. The profits do not obey a simple rebound, but are being accompanied by money entry. According to the data of Bank of America, the entry of money into Variable Income Funds recorded the highest volume in eight years and thus adds five consecutive weeks of promotion. The profits of the European Variable Income On Friday were supported by the Wall Street increases. A day after the S&P 500 entered technical correction, the market reference index shakes the cobwebs and rises 1.8%, which sets towards its best session from the elections last November. Despite this solidity, the S&P 500 gives up 2.8% in the last five days and chains five weeks in negative, its but streak since May 2022, a period marked by strong types of types and the correction of the FAANG, at that time the engine of the markets. Superiors were the Nasdaq promotions, which recorded 2.3% on Friday and Dow Jones, which rises 1.4%. Investors are struggling to find the right value in a context in which tariffs, inflationary tensions and the weakening of the economy are the great winds against. The analysts do not finish agreeing. While some consider that the falls of the start of the year are a mere correction, others believe that it is still precipitated to take advantage of the cuts to raise the appetite for the risk. “The context of uncertainty continues and will continue to dominate and ballast the risk assets,” Macroyield analysts point out. The firm’s experts remember that the aggressiveness shown by the Republican is considerably higher than the one held in the first mandate. “The economic uncertainty has risen extraordinarily, approaching the maximum zone at the beginning of the pandemic and favoring the deterioration of variable income,” they point out. After the S&P 500 entered Thursday in the correction zone (it fell 10% from its last maximum), the next point to be monitored is the possibility that the falls will extend and drag the index to a bearish market. That is, it falls 20% from the maximums recorded in February. Nothing can be discarded. The constant comings and goings of the Trump administration have made obsolete the forecasts handled by the analysis firms by 2025. Waiting to see how events evolve and their impact on the economy, investors now cling to the possibility that the USA avoids a closure of government after the Democratic leader in the Senate withdrawing his threat to block the financing project of six months. “As on previous occasions, we hope that an agreement is reached given the risk of not doing so,” says rental analysts 4. However, this will not be enough to return the tranquility to the market. “It could be just a temporary respite and there is probably also a contagion effect in Europe,” says Sophie Alternatt, economist by Julius Baer. The short and medium term expectations are not very hopeful. After a somewhat more hopeful data battery that aimed at a price moderation, on Friday it was known that the confidence of the US consumer has fallen at 59.7 points in March, its lowest reading since November 2022 and the third consecutive monthly cut. While consumers’ trust deteriorates long -term inflation expectations rise to 3.9%, their highest level since 1993. With this data on the table, Chris Iggo, CIO for Axa Investment Managers, is skeptical and believes that the markets have underestimated the disturbing nature of the Trump administration. “One thing is safe: political risk will not disappear, and political risk means volatility in markets,” he remarks. The expert points out that as economic activity weakens, it is more difficult to assess the cash and cash flows of companies, “US growth prospects are being questioned. It costs me a bit to see the perspectives of the variable income. It has less safe growth: it is an illusion to bet that the political risk disappears and the previous rally continues. Trump will not cease to be a source of uncertainty and, if the political risk follows, follow the volatility in the markets, ”he emphasizes. IgGO adds to the voices that advise prudence and believes that the most likely scenario remains risk aversion waiting for more clarity about geopolitical events that are marking the pulse of the markets. While the variable income experiences strong oscillations, the debt market seems much more stable. Waiting to see the decision of the Federal Reserve and the update of macroeconomic projections, the US US BONY is maintained at 4.3% with the two -year reference to the 4% edge. “The bonds offer some protection if the challenging policies make the US economy slow Bursatiles

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