The fear of the deterioration of the US economy is causing strong losses in world bags. The latest figures, which reflect a brake on job creation and a deterioration of confidence in consumption, in addition to the impact of tariffs, are leading to massive sales of investors at the start of the week.
Donald Trump himself has fed fears this weekend by not ruling out a recession and admitting that the country faces a “transition period” in its economy. Under this scenario, the opening of the stock market session in the US holds strong losses, and particularly in the technological sector; The Nasdaq drops 4%at the close of European markets, with falls led by the magnificent seven: Tesla is left 8%, Apple 5%, Alphabet (Google) and NVIDIA 4%, Microsoft 3%and Amazon 2%. The S&P 500, the most representative index, of the US stock market, falls 3%. In Europe, the main indices had started the day with losses that have been aggravated after the opening of the United States. The Ibex has left 1.32% and is close to losing the 13,000 points. It is next to the German Dax (-1.69%) of the worst indices of the area, while the French CAC and the Italian MIB decreased 0.9%. The banking sector is placed among the most affected of the day, with Santander losing 4.37% and BBVA, 3%. Broad drops are also marked by the steel Acerinox (-4.12%) and Arceormittal (-4.76%), weighed by the possibility of lower economic growth. The first for the production exposed to the United States and the second for tariffs. Only six values have managed to close the session in the Spanish selective, thanks to the energy sector (Enagás rises 3.78%, redefined 2.98%and Iberdrola 1.18%). On the one hand, the fact that Trump warned of complicated times for the economy has put the markets on guard. JP Morgan economists have raised the risk of recession for this year in the first economy of the world to 40% from the previous 30%. Goldman Sachs experts have also raised their chances of economic recession from 15% to 20%. And from Morgan Stanley they have reduced their economic growth estimates and have raised inflation expectations. A combo that usually frightens money. And beyond a possible slowdown in the world’s first economy, investors are also worried because Trump’s statements suggest that the president will not modify his tariff approach, not even before a scenario of a possible recession. Until now, the idea that the White House would try to avoid breaking the Wall Street streak among the experts. Analysts considered that tariffs were more a political tool to achieve concessions in other areas than a measure to be fulfilled. There are those who suggested that Trump used the S&P 500 as a validation thermometer of their policies. But once the threat of tariffs have come true, renowned experts are notifying the risk for the economy, anticipating more volatility. “The American exceptionality that has shone for two years, and that the consensus had imagined that it would be maintained, staggers. The growth of the United States should slow down, at least in the first quarter, weighed by the sinking of the trade balance, caused in turn by the accused increase in imports in anticipation of the increase in tariffs. Political uncertainty is sinking the confidence of companies and households, and the labor market weakens again, ”explains Enguerrand Artaz, a strategist of the financing of L’Enquier. The markets entered 2025 with the conviction that an American economy under Donald Trump’s policies would bring volatility, but would also boost the euphoria that the bags had dominated in the last two years. Just two months after assuming office, those hopes have been diluted. And in this new order, technological values, auged during the last two years by the euphoria that artificial intelligence had unleashed, are the main harmed. “The deceleration of the US economy, budding tariff undervalued. While Wall Street reassess their prospects, international markets arouse a renewed interest. European and Chinese technological values, eclipsed for a long time by the frenzy of AI in the United States, are now outlined as attractive alternatives, ”they point out from Mirabaud.Mike Wilson, by Morgan Stanley, hopes that the S&P 500 drops 5% to 5,500 points before the tariffs and the contraction of public spending. The index touched its historical maximums on February 19. Since then it loses 8%. In the case of Nasdaq the losses are more pronoun. It reached its maximums at the end of 2024 and since that level it has yielded 13%. For giving an additional idea, the Vix, known as the meter of the fear of investors, and that has been full of ups and downs since Trump won in the elections last November, rises 15% to the closing of European markets. It is an index that measures the expected volatility of the market in the next 30 days. It is used as a risk indicator. When a lot goes up, investors expect a lot of uncertainty and falls in the bags, as is happening this Monday. Precisely, the drop in the bags is taking the money to the usual shelters, and the yields of the public debt fall to seven points in the case of the US debt to 10 years, up to 4,233%. In Europe the descents are around the two basic points. As soon as it has an impact, on the contrary, on the price of the euro, which is maintained at 1,083 dollars. BOLSAS – CURRENCY – DEBT – INTEREST RATES – RAW MATERIALS (TAGSTOTRANSLATE) BAG (T) IBEX 35 (T) Socking indices
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