Many pensioners have hoped to fear the contributors: the pension plans of the probably upcoming government of the Union and SPD will expand the services and further ignore the negative consequences of demographic change for the pension. This is emerging according to the previous negotiations of the future coalitioners. This produces millions of winners and millions of losers. Favored and soon pensioners are favored by the plans and younger people suffer. Because they have to finance them. But later, if you are retired, you also benefit from it. So you have to look at the financial consequences over the whole lifetime. And at the point where the border between profiteers and disadvantaged people runs, it becomes exciting. Martin Werding, one of the leading economists in Germany, has started to calculate that. He has been a professor of social policy and public finances at the Ruhr University in Bochum (RUB) since 2008 and since September 2022 one of the so-called economy, i.e. a member of the expert council to assess the overall economic development. Pension level of 48 percent has taken a closer look has requested. This line is intended to stabilize the pension level to 48 percent of the previous wages. This means that the pensions – measured by a standardist – must never fall below this level. Standard retailers are insured persons who have paid contributions for 45 years at the standard age limit of 67 years and earned exactly the average content. Secondly, Werding has analyzed the mother’s pension III that the CSU demands. This is intended to get mothers of children born before 1992 for three years of education – like those with children after this date. So far they have been recognized for 2.5 years. And thirdly, it is about the active pension desired by the CDU. It is intended to grant people who want to continue working beyond the regular retirement age, tax -free income of 2000 euros a month. First 13 euros, then 113 euros more pension by far the most expensive reform is the stop line. Over the next 20 years, it should cost around 520 billion euros, the mother’s pension 60 billion euros. With the active pension, the costs are unclear because nobody knows how much it will be used. If you retire regularly in 2030, the stop line gives 13 euros more pension from taxes from the stop line, 2040, there are already 50 euros more, 2060 finally 113 euros (see graphic). Regular pension increases are taken into account. To finance, the contributions to the pension insurance will increase by 0.4 percentage points by 2030 than they would do because of the aging anyway – afterwards 1.1 percentage points more, of which the employees would have to shoulder half. 0.5 percentage points are currently up to 480 euros more for one employee, depending on the salary, now to calculate who benefits from the stop line and who does not, who do not simulate how much money it would bring if the younger ones would not have to pay the increased contributions to statutory pension insurance, but could put on privately on the capital market, such as in shares. It starts from three possible returns between 3.5 and 6.5 percent, depending on the risk appetite and share share of the savers. The result: If you create risky, all vintages from 1976 and younger (i.e. a maximum of 49 years old in 2025) are worse through the stop line. At the start of the pension, they would get 54 euros more pension with a stop line, but without the reform 58 euros more through their private savings. The younger, the greater the disadvantage. A 32 -year -old person (born in 1993) would get 280 euros less pension from the stop line at the start of the pension (2060) than from private old -age provision. With returns of 3.5 percent, all people who are currently at most 42 years old are disadvantaged: “All younger ones today are disadvantaged by the holding line, even if their statutory pension is higher later,” says economist Martin Werding. The opposite story of the SPD towards young voters is thus refuted. Only young people who do not currently have to pay into the statutory pension insurance are excluded, i.e. self -employed, civil servants and employees who secure themselves through pension works, such as lawyers, tax consultants or architects. Because they are more affected by unemployment. This could increase due to the pension reform because rising pension contributions also have to pay employers. At some point the work will be too expensive for them, and they react with job cuts. The mother’s pension III brings about 20 euros more per month per child. The circle of the beneficiaries is much smaller than in the stop line. Only legally pension -insured older mothers whose children celebrate at least their 34th birthday in 2025 benefit. Either the contributors to statutory pension insurance, i.e. only the current employees. The contribution would then have to increase by about 0.25 percentage points, the German Pension Insurance Bund calculated. All three mother’s pensions cost 1.5 percentage points more contributions. However, this is not the case with mother pensions I and II. If the taxpayer would pay for this, everyone would have to pay for it, even the beneficiary mothers themselves. Either over higher taxes or the consequences of higher debts such as rising interest rates for private loans and cuts in the federal budget. That would probably be faster than with an increase in premium. A forgotten privilege of older mothers of the debate about the mother’s pension is not mentioned that mothers with children born before 1992 are already enjoying a privilege. You can use a “pension according to minimum wages”. It grants you a pension surcharge if you have paid for at least 35 years and earn below average. It will be exciting whether this privilege will be abolished when the mother’s pension is expanded. Otherwise, mothers with children born before 1992 would even be preferred to mothers with younger children. So far, the coalitioners have not indicated abolition. According to Werding, it would reduce the costs of the mother’s pension III by one to two billion euros a year.2600 fewer taxes in the year of the active pension benefit only those who have reached the retirement age and want to work longer. Up to 24,000 euros a year would be tax -free. According to FAS calculations, this saves a single taxes around 2,600 euros a year, depending on the calculation method. If you are married, you don’t save anything if the partner does not earn something, because more than 24,000 euros are already tax -free. However, earned the married 40,000 euros, he pays around 3700 euros less taxes a year. Since this is not paid for pension contributions, but through tax losses, all taxpayers will bear this in the end. How high the amount will be in the end depends on the use. And whether the active pensioners have to pay pension contributions and thus relieve the pension fund and the state budget. Prognos AG has investigated the consequences on behalf of the new social market economy initiative. Of the 4.5 million people between the ages of 65 and 69, 750,000 people are already working in mini jobs. They also get the tax allowance, it is a classic take -take effect that would cost 1.6 billion euros. On the other hand, each other active pensioner not only relieves the shortage of skilled workers, but also pays taxes and social security contributions depending on income. Prognos calculates additional income of 1.3 billion euros (for 50,000 active pensioners) up to 5.2 billion euros (at 300,000). The institute therefore comes to the surprising knowledge: “From an additional employment of over 72,000 people, the state budget benefits from the active pension.” Then, in exceptional cases, the younger ones would not have to pay for the pension plans of black and red. Just like in previous years. The contribution rate remained stable instead of increasing as forecast. This was due to more falling unemployment and higher immigration than expected, of more women’s employment and more older people. But: “It is not to be expected that this development will continue to the extent that the negative effects of aging will be compensated for. And unemployment is still low at the moment and can no longer fall as strongly,” brakes Martin Werding – and that many economists – are therefore particularly devastating with regard to the stop line: “The age -related loads between older and younger insured will be canceled by the younger ones.
