Trump blinked first. Why did the US president froze duties for 90 days? Will the trade war still resume? And what to expect from the escalation of the US conflict with China?

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On April 10, only a few hours after the United States had to start collecting additional customs duties from commodity imports from dozens of countries, Donald Trump made another cool turn in trade policy – and froze for 90 days. The exception was the rebellious China, for which the rate has once again increased – from an already prohibitive value of 104 to 145%.

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Nevertheless, investors were delighted with Trump’s readiness to compromise – and the “bearish” trend of the last week instantly replaced the record growth of stock indices. What still convinced Trump to roll back his decision? And is it worth expecting the resumption of the trade war in three months? And how will the fight of Washington and Beijing affect the world and Russia? Why did Trump put duties on? Obviously, the US President could not fail to notice the reaction of financial markets to a wave of tariffs against all key trading partners of the country. Exchanges rapidly collapsed with each new turn of the escalation of the conflict; Even the influential same-partys of the Republican and heavyweight of Wall Street made public criticism-for example, the general director of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Diamon. In practice, the key alarming signal for Washington, probably, became the problems of the US government bonds. The profitability of the latter – the key tool for financing the American public debt – began to crawl up with the collapse of the entire securities market. In the future, this could push more and more investors to sell government bonds. And the largest holders of such assets are completely “offended” by the tariffs of the state – Japan and China. At the same time, the American president denoted the relief of the burden of the public debt to one of the strategic tasks of his policy. However, Trump did not admit the instability of the course and only stated that he was following the state -owned wrestling market, and also stated that “sometimes had to be flexible.” According to The Wall Street Journal with reference to his sources, to the “flexibility” of the president at the last moment, the US Minister of Finance Scott Immordin was probably inclined. It was he, according to the interlocutors of the publication, that was the chief addressee of the complaints of investors and the backstage lobbyist of the mitigation of the policy. Now the official is likely to prove to Trump his innocence – and in the near future to agree with trading partners about more favorable conditions for American exports. The illustration of chaos, who continues to reign in the White House, seems to be a discussion in Congress. At the time when Trump announced the freezing of duties, his adviser Jamison Grire answered questions from the House of Representatives, defending his position that was just disavowed by the president. “Who the hell is taking responsibility for all this?” – shouted a member of the chamber from Nevada, Democrat Stephen Horsford. “The President of the United States,” the adviser to the head of state retorted concisely. All tariffs, except Chinese? No. The United States did not abandon the idea of a flat scale for increasing import duties by 10% for all 180 states and territories mentioned in the original list. At the same time, a number of commodity categories were bred from these tariffs: chips, copper, lumber, pharmaceutical products, gold bars, energy resources and minerals, of which the states do not possess. Still, cars and auto-disagreements have not fallen under new restrictions-but since March they have already been taxed 25 percent duty when crossing the American border. The same level of tariffs in some cases was preserved at the country level (against Mexico and Canada) and on commodity (in relation to steel and aluminum). It is known that in the White House there is a discussion about the distribution of a bet 25% to copper, lumber, chips and pharmaceuticals. And “mirror” tariffs will also return in three months? So far, such a scenario seems unlikely. Trump stated that more than 70 states stood in the queue for negotiations with the United States about individual duties or even their collapse after April 2. As the Financial Times notes, the White House and he himself is interested in a speedy compromise with at least large trading partners like Japan and South Korea and countries that can provide infrastructure for the industrial capacities of American enterprises, like Vietnam and Cambodia. Even counterparties are ready to execute the conflict, which formally managed to recover duties with duties with duties with duties with duties with duties with duties with duties with duties Washington. For example, the European Union has already announced the freezing of a coordinated package of tariffs against imports from the United States, which was supposed to enter into force on April 15. The world economy is digesting Trump’s tariffs: panic of investors, the collapse of oil prices and the expectation of a large trade war and China Chronicle of Chaosir Economics digesting Trump’s tariffs: panic of investors, a collapse The US and China wars Chronicle of Chaosapo’s opinion analyst of the consulting company SEC Newgate Ellie Renison in order to conduct many negotiations in parallel, the US authorities will be more convenient to get away from the total taxation of the entire commodity import of tariffs and discuss duties for specific categories or individual exceptions. Such a dialogue will be much more constructively perceived by the market and will help Washington eliminate truly unjust customs practices against the export of the United States to other countries, the expert summarized. What to expect from the US and China’s trade war? Unfortunately, nothing good is found in this case. In 2024, the two countries spent more than $ 580 billion with each other. The trade balance is shifted in favor of American imports from China: the United States brought goods by almost $ 439 billion and put in the opposite direction to 143.5 billion. The countries are obviously very dependent on each other – and the breakdown of trade ties will not pass painlessly. Last days there have already appeared a lot of news about the first problems and anxieties “on Earth”: Apple, in anticipation of tariffs input, is transporting five sides stuffed with iPhones in the United States, but Chinese Christmas tree decorations risk remaining without orders in the hot season after the loss of American customers. Probably, we will hear many more such news in the near future, while companies, dependent on supplies, will restructure business processes. Naturally, a more painful blow to China’s economy will be more painful. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, this year, the trade conflict with the United States is able to slow down the country’s economy by 0.5% (the new forecast of Investbank – 4 and 3.5% in 2025 and 2026 instead of 4.5 and 4% expected according to the previous forecast). Chines will be forced to diversify their exports – and part of the supplies may be redirected to the Russian market. Experts surveyed by RBC did not even exclude that the Russian authorities would have to take their protectionist measures for individual commodity categories in the event of an influx of Chinese products to the country. The beginning of the year, the ruble was strengthened by almost 20% – and turned out to be one of the fastest growing currencies in the world. This is a problem for the budget of the Russian Federation how will Trump’s trading war affect the course? From the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened the dollar by almost 20% – and turned out to be one of the fastest growing currencies in the world. This is a problem for the budget of the Russian Federation how will Trump’s trading war affect the course? Is it possible to say that the threat of a global trade war has passed? We do not know. And no one seems to know. It is precisely this as the main problem that many experts now indicate: Trump gave rise to a wave of distrust and uncertainty with his inconsistency. “In (academic) literature on economics, the effects of uncertainty are sometimes described as no less harmful than (excessive) tariffs. And now we see great uncertainty. Even if Trump concludes transactions in order to avoid the commissioning of tariffs today, it may well be that he will change his mind again (and will introduce duties again), ”the trade policy researcher from the University of Sussex Nikolo Tyberi outlined this logic in the comments of the Financial Times. Refrain from active purchases, said Santander US Capital Markets Stephen Abrams: “We all have already seen the first“ Liberation Day ”. Without a doubt, someone will decide to invest, despite the possibility of the second. But many will wait. “Tramp entered the tariff war with several countries at once. And the tariffs are what is it? How do they affect the economy? The newsletter of the Carnegie Berlin Center “How does it work?” Trump entered the tariff war with several countries at once. And the tariffs are what is it? How do they affect the economy? The newsletter of the Carnegie Berlin Center “How does it work?” (Tagstotranslate) News

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Trump blinked first. Why did the US president froze duties for 90 days? Will the trade war still resume? And what to expect from the escalation of the US conflict with China?

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