Trump inadvertently announced the risk of a decline in the economy – and collapsed the market. Why don’t investors like the president’s policy? And is the US threatens a crisis?

Until recently, the US stock market enthusiastically met Donald Trump’s victory in the US election: from November to mid -February, the index grew by 7.5%.

However, the situation has changed. Over the past three weeks, the same index has collapsed by 9%, dropping below the level recorded on the day of summing up the results of the presidential election. Investors are increasingly worried about Trump’s unpredictable trade policy, which jeopardizes the stability of global supply chains. And the insufficient concern of the White House with the risks of the recession only enhances the volatility. What was a sharp collapse in the American market in recent days? How much did the presidential bills have lost? And what will happen next to the US exchanges and the economy in general? On Monday, March 10, the American stock market survived the worst day since 2022. The commotion caused Donald Trump’s statement about the possible decline in the US economy. The American president said that the country was experiencing a “transition period”, and did not rule out that the tariff war unleashed to him could cause. “I hate to predict such things (recession – approx. Medusa). (Goes) the transitional period, because what we do is very large, ”he explained. A non -help statement alarmed analysts who recently expected that Trump’s policy to support the business, on the contrary, would accelerate the economic growth and support the stock market. Now this forecast is in question. As the markets reacted to Trump’s statements? Trump’s words caused a real storm on the American stock market. Investors took the statements literally – as a warning about a possible recession. The index, which reflects the dynamics of the largest American companies, fell by 2.7%. The “blue chips” index decreased by 2.1%. The technological sector suffered the most: collapsed by 4% – this is the worst result since September 2022. The fall has clearly manifested in the assessment of the states of the largest businessmen of the United States. Tesla shares fell by 15%, which has become the largest fall since 2020. It cost Ilon a mask, the richest man in the world, almost $ 23 billion. Jeff Bezos from Amazon lost $ 4.3 billion, Mark Zuckerberg from Meta – 9.5 billion. Together with them, the conditions of many other major players decreased. The Bloomberg agency calculated: since the inauguration of Trump, businessmen who attended the ceremony lost $ 209 billion. And the combined decrease in the capitalization of their companies was fantastic 1.39 trillion dollars. The funds lost $ 6,400,000,000. What happened? Will the collapse continue? And will Russia be touched? The stock market lost $ 6,400,000,000. What happened? Will the collapse continue? And will Russia be touched? The day after the Black Monday, Trump, trying to calm the investors, assured that he did not see the threat of recession in the United States. This led to temporary stabilization: March 12, the S&P 500 index began a trading in growth. However, the president soon made a new statement – he announced plans to increase duties on the import of Canadian steel and aluminum, up to 50%. The market reaction was not long in coming: the indices again went into minus. According to the results of the day, S&P 500 fell by 0.8%, Dow Jones Industrial Average – by 1.1%, NASDAQ Composite – by 0.2%. Trump later abandoned the idea of ​​doubling tariffs. “The market catches every word of the president,” says Yon Trisi, author of the bulletin for Fuller Treacy Money. At the same time, Trump’s statements themselves no longer help the market, since the main uncertainty is related to the future direction of trade policy, said George Mateio, investment director of the management company Key Wealth in the commentary. Moreover, the main problem, according to him, is not in the duties themselves, but in their “chaotic introduction and cancellation” – this makes the situation extremely unstable. What bothers investors in the presidential policy? Trump’s conflicting statements only strengthened the inconsistency in the financial market. In recent weeks, investors have already experienced uncertainty-euphoria, associated with the return of the Republican to power, quickly gave way to anxiety because of his economic policy. S&P 500 reached a peak mark of 6144 paragraphs on February 19, but since then has sank by 9%. The prolonged fall reflects not only the decisions of the president: for the same period, for example, there was a residual effect of the January release of the fresh language model Deepseek, which threatened the hegemony of American technologies of artificial intelligence. Nevertheless, Trump himself is not yet obviously justifying the expectations that have been assigned to many market players. The main reason for changing moods, as mentioned above, is a tariff policy. And although Trump’s plans for the introduction of duties were not a secret, the markets preferred not to notice the Rhetoric of the President in relation to trade wars and focused on his promises to reduce taxes and weaken the regulation. The reality turned out to be more complicated: the Republican not only unleashed the tariff war, but also made it clear that he was ready to take tightening of the course and further. Recall, on March 4, Trump introduced duties 25% to the import of all goods from Canada and Mexico, and also doubled duties for deliveries from China – from 10% to 20%. Canada, Mexico and China are the largest partners in the United States: together, they account for 40% of the total volume of American trade with other countries. And on March 12, tariffs of 25% entered into force in relation to all aluminum imported in the United States and steel, which also affected imports from the European Union. The TRMP unleashed the tariff war. What will win (and what will lose) from the opposition of the United States? And how will the duties affect China, Canada and Mexico? Last week-even before the collapse-Stephen Ratner, the investor and former adviser to Barack Obama, in the column for The New York Times wrote that his colleagues with Wall Street have not yet panicked and generally maintained the Trump course, but added that they were able to dramatically change their time for several days. mood. This week, the markets have already fallen in a row in a row, and talking about potential benefits from the Republican policy were replaced by the fears of Trumpzessia-the risk of a recession provoked by presidential decisions. So Trump leads the US economy to a recession? The risks of slowing the economy and recession have really grown due to tariff policy. The duties introduced by Trump increase the costs of manufacturers on imported raw materials and components. As a result, the companies will reduce investments and increase the prices of goods, shifting the costs of customers. Thus, the tariffs introduced will cost the average American family in $ 1000-1200 of additional expenses per year, the economists of the Yale University budget laboratory calculated. Trump-large-scale Trump’s large-scale program-a reduction in government departments. In 2024, the budget deficit exceeded $ 1.8 trillion – about 6.5% of the US GDP. But even, coupled with a traditionally high public debt, this did not create serious problems for the American economy, since the country continues to enjoy the confidence of investors, and the dollar remains the main world reserve currency. However, Trump still criticized the risks of this model. A high -way public debt is a really structural problem in the American economy, the solution of which was laid for a long time with the help of an increase in the so -called state debt ceiling. Now the situation complicated by Trump’s decisions can lead to “shocking events”, the founder of the Bridgewater Head Fund Ray Dalio warned in an interview with CNBC. “We have a very serious imbalance between demand and demand,” the investor explained. According to him, the deficit should be reduced from the predicted 7.2% of GDP to about 3%. For this, the United States will have to sell such a number of debt papers that the world does not want to buy. “You will become witnesses of shocking events related to how this problem will be solved,” said Dalio. The founder of the Movchanʼs Group investment company, Andrei Movchan calls Trump’s initiative to solve the public debt “economic repair”. The recovery of public finance will lead to a reduction in the influx of “crazy” money to the stock market, since a significant part of the budget funds was previously directed not to the development of the economy, but to speculative circulation, he explains Trump’s motivation. In the short term, this can reduce demand and even cause a temporary recession, but in a long run, the restoration of budget discipline will strengthen the economy, reducing dependence on constant monetary emissions. The economists of the largest investment banks have already begun to revise their forecasts towards the decrease. Goldman Sachs predicts that new trading barriers will reduce the economic growth of the United States by 0.2 percentage points – from 2.5% to 2.3% this year. In addition, the bank’s economists increased the prediction of the probability of recession in the next 12 months – from 15% to 20% – warning that this indicator can grow even more if the White House does not adjust its policy. Morgan Stanley economists also reduced the prognosis for GDP growth to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. Odnaco, not all analysts are sure that Trump’s policy will inevitably lead to a recession. The Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns against premature statements about the decline in the American economy: “Things are not very good, although I would warn everyone against excessive expectations of Trumpzia. This can happen, but so far this is not visible from the data (statistics). ” “I do not think we will talk about a recession in the USA. The economy is stable, I would say, in many ways, despite Donald Trump, ”said Holger Schmering, chief economist Berenberg Berenberg Berenberg Berenberg, what will happen next with the stock market? Regardless of Trump’s economic policy, the stock market will suffer from uncertainty. The volatility will remain at least until the situation with the trade policy will become clear. S&P 500 may fall by 5%, to 5500 points, in the first half of the year, Michael Wilson’s strategist predicts the Morgan Stanley strategist. Although its forecast involves an increase by the end of the year to 6500 points (that is, +13% of the current levels), the analyst warns that the market will remain unstable, since investors take into account the risks of slowing the economy. “The situation may worsen before recovery begins,” Wilson explains. In a pessimistic scenario, the US economy will enter into a recession, and S&P 500 can fall by 20%. “We are not there yet, but the situation can change quickly, therefore it is important to take into account possible risks,” concluded an economist. What are the increase in five percentage points against Mexico, China and Canada will reduce profits from S&P 500 by 1-2%, evaluates David Kostin, the main strategist in Goldman Sachs Research. CITI recommended investors to record profit in American papers and transfer investments to Chinese companies. The bank believes that market drawing by almost 10% of the peak value is a sufficient occasion to withdraw from US companies. The American market entered the “bubble zone”, and now the main task of investors is to maintain profitability, and not to build up risks, CITI economists write. According to Goldman Sachs, which is quoted by Reuters, hedge funds really sell risky American assets as quickly as in the early days of Covid-19 pandemia. On March 7, funds reduced their positions in certain shares at the fastest pace in more than two years. Donald Trump is the main growth factor of the Russian financial market: after its statements, the ruble is strengthened and the shares are valued. Will this effect be long? And what is the optimism of investors in disadvantage of the Kremlin? Donald Trump is the main growth factor for the Russian financial market: after its statements, the ruble is strengthened and shares are valued. Will this effect be long? And what is the optimism of investors unprofitable to the Kremlin? Arthur Harutyunov (Tagstotranslate) News

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