“What consequences will the Big Bang of Defense have?”

Free tribune A “War Economy” in France would still boost interest rates and lead consumption, investment, economic growth in France and the Paris Stock Exchange (CAC 40), is alarmed our columnist Marc Touati, Economic Advisor Etoro and President of the Acdefi Cabinet. It is to lose its Latin: while a few weeks ago, the European Union (EU) was preparing a recovery plan of 800 billion euros focused in particular on the reduction of CO2 emissions, the same EU now announces that it is about to launch a plan still of 800 billion euros but to “strengthen its defense and help Ukraine”.

However, it is clear that to increase military spending will be very little compatible with a reduction in CO2 emissions … Even more incredible, Ms. von der Leyen reported that, within the framework of this plan, the EU suspended the stability and growth pact. Even the new German chancellor, however freshly elected on a budgetary rigor program, stressed that Germany was now going to be Massively its public deficits and its debt … In addition, crowning it all, the EU has remained completely silent on the financing of these 800 billion euros injected into defense and assistance to Ukraine, even more compromising its credibility and aroused strong tension in interest rates of state obligations in all European countries, especially in the euro zone and including in Germany. Read also: Defense: What do French industrialists from the European plan think at 800 billion euros? The prospect of massive investments in the defense is already shaking up interest rates in France and Germany © Acdefiainsi, between February 28 and March 6, 2025, the interest rate of the 10 -year bonds of the German State went from 2.4% to 2.9%! That of the French State of 3.1% to 3.6%, from unheard of since November 2011, in full Greek turning point doubled by an existential crisis in the euro zone! And this, despite the new drop in guiding rates of the European Central Bank, which therefore failed to stop this bond mini-krach. That is to say the extent of the damage! >> Buy and sell your actions at the right time thanks to Momentum, the premium investment letter of capital based on technical, economical and financial analysis. Our readers were able to achieve massive and rapid gains on the stock market on Dassault Aviation and Esseil Technologies, French Defense nuggets. And thanks to our partnership with the Technical Analysis Fair of March 28, 2025, take advantage of -30% now on the price of an annual subscription! © Acdefila France is entering the “War Economy”, announces Emmanuel Macronpour not to fix anything, while France is in virtual recession, that the bankruptcy of companies beat records, that the destruction of jobs have reached heights only exceeded during the phases of serious recession, that public deficits and public debt have become uncontrollable, … In “war economics”, that is to say, to use the official definition, “a type of economy in which the needs of the war are satisfied primarily, by authoritarian levy”, in this case, requisitions, compulsory deliveries, but also taxes and, at the end of the chain, a strong inflation. The latter will be even more dramatic if, unfortunately, the ECB decides to finance the slippage of public accounts by the famous “ticket planks”, which could then arouse a phase of hyper inflation accompanied by a dramatic recession. A “war economy” in France would have catastrophic consequences: recession, Krach of the CAC 40 … To synthesize, given the magnitude of the public debt, here is the logical continuation that would cause a “war economy” in France: increase in interest rates (which has already started well), decrease in consumption and investment, aggravation of recession, flambé of unemployment, new phase of increase in public deficit and Debt, hence a new increase in taxes, or even a puncture on private household savings, collapse of confidence, exacerbation of the recession … And the vicious circle will continue until exhaustion … With a historic granting Krach, even the explosion of the euro zone and an international economic and financial crisis worthy of that of the 1930s. To read also: does Dassault Aviation have? Germany puts France under pressure, global economic growth suffers, before Europe’s switching in a historic belligious situation already and even before Europe’s tilting in a historic bellicose situation, the latest advanced indicators of global growth have shown that the latter continued to slow down significantly. Thus, in February 2025, the COMPOSITE MONDE COMPOSITE PURCHASE Directors (PMI) recorded its second consecutive month of decline. With a level of 51.5, it has been on a floor since December 2023. In this context, global growth is installed permanently under 3 %, and even around 2.5 %. Far from this still relatively satisfactory result, the HCOB PMI composites indices in the Economic and Monetary Union (UEM) remained dying, with in particular levels of 50.4 in Germany and 50.2 for the entire euro zone. This confirms that UEM’s growth will remain close to 0.5 % over the whole of 2025. But, unfortunately and as has been observed for more than two years, the poor parent of the UEM remains still and always France, with a composite HCOB index of 45.1, which lets anticipate a new drop in French GDP in the first quarter of 2025, or even on the whole of the first half. red lantern of the world economy. And this, before our entry into an even more worrying “war economy”, France is the red lantern in all sectors of activity. Starting with industry, with a 45.8 PMI index, which therefore places France behind Germany for the third consecutive month. With such a level, France remains even the red lantern of industry on the whole planet. And this, for the third consecutive month. What show that the reindustrialisation movement as announced for months is far from being in reality. © Acdefidans Construction, if the recession is also generalized, it is also stronger in France. As the PMI Construction indices of February at 42.7 for the entire euro zone, 41.2 in Germany and only 39.8 in France shows, has been a floor since September 2024, which was itself a lower since the 2020 confinements. In services, the activity shift is even more obvious, since the German indices and the whole of the euro zone have been in positive fields for three months, while the French PMI index remains very far. The bar of 50 to precisely 45.3. In addition, the statistics of the Banque de France confirmed that business failures were maintained on historical heights in January 2025. Excluding micro-enterprises, they are even 12.5 % above their previous September 2009 record. Finally, it is with always the same sadness that we must emphasize that, for the fifth consecutive month, in view of the PMI composite indices, Still the red lantern of the world economy. And this, before our entry into “war economics”. So strongly the advent of a “peace economy”! To conclude and very much hoping that we will avoid this sad scenario, I will recall the famous sentence of Paul Valéry, who, having lived the 1st and the 2nd World War, spoke knowingly: “War, a massacre of people who do not know each other, in favor of people who know each other but do not massacre themselves”. Marc Touati, economist, economic advisor Etoro, president of the Acdefi firm you can also find his video chronicles on his YouTube channel, which has more than 217,500 subscribers, including the last: “War economy: Diversion, solution or perdition?” Receive our latest news every day, selecting the main news of the day. (tagstotranslate) d u00e9fense

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