What will happen to Russia’s military bases in Syria after Assad goes to power?

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Image source, AFPImage caption Russian troops were supporting Syrian government forces in Syria until the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government… In 2011, long before the Syrian civil war broke out, Russian President Vladimir Putin Has been a trusted ally of ousted President Bashar al-Assad. A large Russian military contingent has been present in Syria since September 2015 to stop the rebels advancing against the Syrian government. Russia has two major military bases in Syria – first, Tartus Naval Military Base and second, Hmeimim Air Military Base. . Hmeimim military base is located about 20 kilometers south-east of Latakia. But now after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, there is a heated discussion in the Russian media about what is the future of these military bases of Russia. What will happen to the ships, vehicles and planes stationed here as well as the expensive military equipment installed here and the 7,500 soldiers living here? Play video, “People returning to Syria told the story of the cruelty of the Bashar government. “, duration 2,3102:31Video caption, Many Syrians are now returning to their homeland after Bashar-al-Assad left the country. How many people are at these two military bases There are different estimates about the number of soldiers and the amount of equipment kept. But it is believed that Russia is facing a difficult situation in the rapidly changing political scenario in this region in a period of uncertainty, it can use these military bases. How to protect your belongings? In 2017, an agreement was signed between Russia and Syria. Under this, Syria had given permission to Russia to keep military bases in Tartus and Hmeimim for 49 years. This agreement is till the year 2066. But now it is difficult to predict whether these two military bases will remain under the control of Russia. The leadership of Russia has indicated that it intends to continue using these two military bases. No. On Monday, Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said that Russia will discuss the future of the military bases in Syria with the new regime coming to power in Syria. Peskov’s statement was speculated to be That Russia has not yet taken any decision regarding the future of Tartus and Hmeimim, but it is possible that it may start thinking about pulling out the Russian army from there. However, satellite images released recently have shown that Russia has Ships have started to be moved away from the coast. According to BBC Verification, Russia has at least temporarily taken its ships out of the port. There are also two guided missile fleets, which are at a distance of 13 kilometers from the Syrian coast. Russia’s plan to exit Syria Image source, AFP Image caption The presence of the Russian Air Force was important for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad government But now questions are being raised on its presence in Syria. This task will not be easy for Russia. The Russian fleet here consists of 7,500 troops as well as major weapons and military equipment, especially at the Khmeimim military base. These include armored vehicles, air defense systems, engineering equipment as well as other military equipment. Any attempt to take out goods from here can attract the attention of the opponents. In the past years, there were reports that the Russian fleet present in Syria also includes heavy tanks used in war. For this, Russia will have to use heavy aircraft like AN-124, which is one of the largest aircraft in the world, from the airstrip of Hmeimim military base. If Russia is in a hurry to evacuate its goods and soldiers from the Hmeimim military base, It is possible that for this it will have to use more than a hundred AN-124 and IL-76 aircraft in a short time. On the other hand, the sea route also passes through the Tartus Naval Military Base, but this work is also done from here. It will not be so easy. The warships leaving here carrying heavy cargo will have to pass through Turkey’s Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to reach the Black Sea, which is very difficult for these ships. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Turkey has closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships of both Russia and Ukraine under the Montreu Treaty. Image caption, Russian military bases in Syria This means that if Russia He managed to load the goods into the warships and if he tried to get out through Tartus, he would have to go through the long route of the Mediterranean Sea. From here, it will have to reach Russia via the Strait of Gibraltar and after circling Europe either through the Baltic Sea or through the Norwegian Sea. If Russia wants to remove its military bases from Syria, then this operation will not only help it This will have to be done on a large scale, rather it will prove very costly for him. Image source, AFP Image caption, Russian President Vladimir Putin has spent a year to help Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad Thousands of Russian troops were deployed in Syria in 2015. The meaning of losing its military base in Syria for Russia. The presence of the Russian military base in Syria was only to help the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. It is not so, it has other significance. Their presence in the Middle East was also important to ensure that military contractors and supplies could be easily shipped to Africa, where Russia’s interest has increased in recent years. The Russian government says Although its base on Tartus is actually just a place to repair ships, it is not correct to call it a military base. However, the truth is that this military base ensures the presence of the Russian naval fleet in the Mediterranean, even if the American It is small in comparison to the naval fleet. The Hmeimim military base was particularly important because it was an important transport hub for the private army Wagner Group, based in Africa, and to transport supplies to Russian projects. Used to function as a logistics center. Image source, AFP Image caption According to an estimate, 7,500 Russian soldiers are present in Syria. Even if Russia negotiates with the new Syrian government and reaches an agreement to maintain these military bases So this will be different from the earlier agreement. The government of former President Bashar al-Assad was largely dependent on Russia and the presence of Russian forces in Syria. Now Russia will also have to offer something to support the new Syrian government. For Putin, deploying thousands of troops to Syria to help Bashar al-Assad in 2015 was like strengthening the country’s image as a global power. Russia’s presence in the Middle East was Russia’s first major challenge to the Western countries after the Soviet Union era. There was a time when Russia’s mission in Syria seemed to be successful. But for years now, apprehensions have been raised about Russia’s military presence and diplomatic advances in Syria. Published by Collective Newsroom for BBC

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