The tariff war has a cost even for countries, such as Spain, which seem more protected by its negative wave, whether because of the good internal behavior of the economy, as well as the lower direct exposure. It is the conclusion reached by the Foundation of Savings Banks (Funcas) that has reduced three tenths its growth forecast for Spain for both this year, which would remain in 2.3%, as for 2025, when it would be located at 1.9%. It is a calculation from a relatively optimistic scenario in which market pressure forces to soften protectionist measures. However, although it was softened, there would be a direct impact of tariffs on exports and also the deceleration of the US economy and its derivatives in European markets. A 2.3% growth this year that places Spain well above the European average. “It is an undoubtedly comfortable, comfortable level, above all, if we compare ourselves with what is happening globally,” said the general director of Fun Cas, Carlos Ocaña. The reason for this greatest growth is double. On the one hand, the lower exposure to American tariffs, but on the other, also an expansive cycle of private consumption, and an increase in housing investment. Households have an important accumulated savings which allows consumption, and also, all indicators point to an increase in construction investment. “Although it is far from covering the current gap between housing and needs, at least the residential investment is reactivated,” said Raymond Torres, director of Cojuncture of Funcas. Another element that changes in this year’s growth is that the activity will depend exclusively on domestic demand, which will provide 2.6 GDP points this year. On the other hand, the foreign sector will subtract three tenths, which is a behavior well below the last three years, when it had an important role in the growth of the activity. Regarding employment, growth moderation will also move to the labor market, although unemployment will continue to fall. The forecast is that in 2026 it is below 10%. However, the loss of vigor in the creation of jobs is evident, with the 360,000 that is expected this year, compared to the average of 550,000 created in the last two years.
You function three tenths the growth of Spain, up to 2.3%, by the tariff war
