What have the Union and SPD agreed in the coalition agreement? The contract text reads: “The development of the minimum wage must make a contribution to stronger purchasing power and a stable internal demand in Germany. We stick to a strong and independent minimum wage commission. For the further development of the minimum wage, the minimum wage commission will be based on collective bargaining and 60 percent of the gross wage of full -time. Minimum wage of 15 euros reached in 2026. ”Difficult to say. But one thing is clear: The text does not say that the future coalition disempowers the independent minimum wage commission and issues a law that sets 15 euros per hour. If one assumes that the decision in the hands of this commission with three employer and union representatives should remain, the whole dispute is actually difficult to explain. Friedrich Merz (CDU) could then not influence whether the minimum wage rises to 15 euros on January 1, 2026, and why is there still outrage in the SPD? It could be because Merz was misunderstood. In any case, he has not made any political plans for debate that should prevent or delay an increase in the minimum wage to 15 euros. He said to the newspaper “Bild am Sonntag”: “We agreed that we assume that the minimum wage commission is thinking in this direction”. However, there will be “no legal automatism”. The minimum wage could be 15 euros on January 1, 2026 or 2027. “But that remains the task of the minimum wage commission.” Has the SPD Friedrich Merz really misunderstood? If not, this would mean that the SPD has said goodbye to the concept of an independent minimum wage commission. On the other hand, it should then be noted that it recognizes the order in the text of the coalition agreement for a change in the law. What does the executive Federal Minister of Labor say? Hubertus Heil (SPD) derives an indirect requirement for the minimum wage commission from the coalition agreement. “For the minimum wage, we discussed that we want to reach the 15 euros in 2026, and we do this by adhering to the minimum wage commission to hold its own rules of procedure,” said Heil on Monday on ZDF. He left open to what extent the planned coalition wanted to put pressure on the Commission. He did not threaten a legal regulation. How does the decision -making process of the minimum wage commission work? The minimum wage law specifies it every two years to make a decision on the adaptation of the general border of wages. The next decision is due on June 30, 2025. The committee consists of three voting representatives of employers and unions as well as the chairman Christiane Schönefeld; Your voice can then be the decisive factor if there would be a stalemate. What criteria does the commission have to observe in your decisions? This is regulated in the minimum wage law. It calls for an “overall assessment of the amount of the minimum wage to contribute to adequate minimum protection of employees, enable fair and functioning competitive conditions and not to endanger employment”. The law specifies a scale in concrete terms: “The minimum wage commission is based on collective bargaining when determining the minimum wage.” Today, the minimum wage is 12.82 euros. If the Commission was based on their decision in June the tariff development of the past two years, there would be an increase of almost eight percent. This would lead to an amount between 13.80 and 13.90 euros. Is this a plausible order of magnitude? According to the legal requirements, the Commission would have to observe this time more than before the goals of “functioning competitive conditions” and “do not endanger employment”. This could be an opportunity to stay under the tariff increase. Since the decision of mid -2023, the number of unemployment has increased by 13 percent, the number of long -term unemployed by 16 percent. The unemployment rate of people without a professional qualification is 30 percent in the east. There is nothing of this in the law. However, the 60 percent criterion can be found in a catalog of non-binding criteria, which the EU minimum wage directive names. A message from the Federal Ministry of Labor also suggests that they are to be regarded as non -binding: In autumn, it reported to Brussels in autumn that the guideline in this country was already properly implemented. At the same time, there are strong doubts as to whether the directive is valid. The General Attorney at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) came into account in January that the EU was not authorized to regulate such regulations. The court ruling is still pending. How much are 60 percent of the median wage? According to the Federal Statistical Office, the average gross hourly earnings of full -time employees in the fourth quarter of 2024 were 23.49 euros. 60 percent of them are 14.09 euros. In order to get 15 euros in June, the Commission would have to raise the value. Why does the 60 percent criterion play such a role? Apart from the pressure that the SPD and unions do with it, it can also be found in a new rules of procedure that the minimum wage commission has given. This provides for an “overall assessment” that is “based on collective bargaining and the reference value of 60 percent of the gross wages”. When the new rules of procedure of the Commission became public in January, this surprised many observers and annoyed a number of employer representatives. The committee had previously worked without its own rules of procedure. Some employer representatives now emphasize that the 60 percent are now only one of several criteria. In addition, the rules of procedure are not above the law. Surprisingly, the twist came in that the set of rules became known shortly after the doubts at the EU directive. The social partners had already agreed in autumn. At that time it was expected that the Bundestag election would take place after the new minimum wage decision in June. A “voluntary” powerful increase by the Commission might have been able to dampen a minimum wage election campaign.
