In 2025, the dollar to the Russian currency fell by almost 18%in the off -off market, the euro – by 11.5%, Yuan – by 15.3%. The ruble is strengthened for the third month in a row and is among the fastest growing currencies in the world. But the stability of this growth is in doubt. The course is approaching a level that may be uncomfortable for the Russian budget and exporters. At the same time, positive factors supporting the ruble from the beginning of the year begin to weaken. The dialogue for the settlement of war in Ukraine remains at a dead end, oil prices are falling, and the effect of foreign exchange earnings returned by exporters is gradually exhausted. Why the ruble is so strongly stronger in 2025? Partly due to Donald Trump-its election became one of the reasons to strengthen the ruble. Since the victory of the Republican in the US elections, Russian markets have covered moderate optimism: there has been hope for warming in relations with the West, a partial relief of sanctions and stopping the hot phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war-a key source of problems for the Russian economy. It was this shift in the moods of investors that the analysts of the Central Bank called the reasons for the growth of the ruble in the February “Risk Risk Revision of Financial Markets”. Donald Trump is the main growth factor in the Russian financial market: after its statements, the ruble is strengthened and the shares are being expensive. Will this effect be long? And what is the optimism of investors in disadvantage of the Kremlin? Donald Trump is the main growth factor for the Russian financial market: after its statements, the ruble is strengthened and shares are valued. Will this effect be long? And what is the optimism of investors in disadvantage of the Kremlin? Expectations of improving the foreign policy atmosphere stimulated interest in Russian assets from “friendly” investors. They put the currency into rubles to invest in Russian assets – this creates an additional demand for Russian currency. Even Western investors began to look for workarounds in order to make a profit on papers related to the Russian Federation, Bloomberg wrote at the end of February: due to sanctions and Russian restrictions, they buy such assets through exchanges in Hong Kong, Budapest and Vienna. Out of the demand of non-resizions for the ruble can be explained in another way. The strengthening of the ruble can be associated not so much with new investments as with the closure of the old positions, the economist Yegor Susin wrote. We are talking about those foreign companies and funds that previously held ruble assets, but opened opposite positions to protect against exchange rate risks – put on a weakening of the ruble. Now that these assets are sold, they no longer need such insurance. For example, if an investor from Asia has left ruble bonds, he closes a deal against the ruble, buying Russian currency – and thereby strengthen its course. No less optimism regarding Russian assets may be short -lived. Despite the hopes, negotiations between Russia and the United States are still at a dead end. If negotiations do not bring significant results, then a fair ruble exchange rate at current oil prices is above 100 per dollar, said Olga Kuzmina, the head of research in the Renaissance Capital investment company, there is all this growth – a reflection of optimism in relation to Russian assets? Not only. Another important factor in the ruble strengthening is foreign trade. In January-February 2025, Russian companies sold more goods abroad than they purchased, $ 18.5 billion. It is important that the surplus increased by 15% compared to the same period last year-mainly due to the reduction of imports by 5%. Moreover, the exporters decided to get rid of foreign exchange earnings faster against the background of a high key rate. So, in February, they increased the amount of currency sales by 25%, from 9.9 billion to 12.4 billion dollars. The demand for foreign currency from the importers was noticeably weaker than last year and was also accompanied by a decreasing demand by the population, Yegor Susin notes. As a result, there were more dollars, euros and yuan in the foreign exchange market, which importers and citizens were ready to buy. This also moved the ruble upward. The fact of strengthening the ruble due to an imbalance in trade at the beginning of the year was not a surprise. Exporters traditionally receive great revenue in the first quarter, while the demand for currency from importers and the population at this time of the year is usually low. Last year, the situation was similar, and the ruble was also strengthened. However, in 2025, the imbalance in trading increased by $ 2.5 billion and exporters sold the currency more zealously, which led to a sharper strengthening of the ruble compared to 2024. “In winter, the foreign currency tributaries from abroad are record, hence the increase in the foreign exchange market. Import at the beginning of the year is historically reduced, and therefore the demand for the currency was insufficient, ”said Mikhail Zelzer, the BCS Investment Mir Investment Stock Market, who wins from a strong ruble? Wins first of all importers: purchases abroad become cheaper, which means that their profit is also growing. For most citizens, the strengthening of the currency is also positive, since the cost of imported goods is reduced and prices in the domestic market begin to grow slower. But there are losers. For exporters, an expensive ruble is a direct loss of profit. Companies selling products abroad receive income in currency, and they carry a significant part of expenses in rubles. With a strong ruble, the profit is reduced at the conversion stage. This is especially struck by raw materials, where the share of export in the revenue is still high, despite the sanctions. Metallurgical, oil and coal companies have already felt the negative impact of an expensive ruble. For example, the export contribution to the revenue of the Norilsk Nickel metallurgical giant is 85%, the aluminum UC Rusal is 70%, the lead analyst of the Veles Capital investment company Vasily Danilov said forbes. Coarseers have the hardest thing: in March, nine coal enterprises stopped working due to a sharp strengthening of the ruble. Oil companies are also experienced by the problem, and the Russian government is also in the chain. Is it that is not a strong currency disadvantageous to the state? That’s right. For the government, too strong the ruble becomes a headache. On the one hand, the growth of currency partially helps with the struggle against inflation – one of the main problems for the economy of the warring country. In March, inflationary expectations of the population decreased from 13.7% to 12.9% – this is at least from September 2024. On the other hand, a strong ruble leads to a decrease in revenue from oil exports and other raw materials, which negatively affects the budget. The first alarm signals have already arrived. In February, rental fees from the oil and gas sector fell by 18.4% compared to the same month of last year – this is minus 174 billion rubles. In March, they again decreased by 17% year by the year. The reason is just a sharp strengthening of the ruble. The budget for 2025 is a supervision based on the average annual exchange rate of 96.5 rubles per dollar. But by April, the course dropped below 85. This means that for each exported barrel of oil in ruble equivalents, the treasury receives less than planning: in March – about 4900 rubles per barrel instead of the expected 6726 rubles. The problem of the problem of Russian oil Urals also exacerbates the problem. In April, it dropped to $ 52 per barrel – this is 25% lower than the level of $ 69.7 pledged into the budget. In order to compensate for the shortage, the Ministry of Finance for the first time in almost a year and a half resorted to interventions: from April 7 to May 12, the department plans to sell Yuan and gold from the National Welfare Fund worth 35.9 billion rubles. The world economy digests Trump’s tariffs: panic of investors, the collapse of oil and the expectation of a large trade war of the US Trump’s tariffs: panic of investors, a collapse of oil prices and the expectation of a large trade war of the United States and China Chronicle with chaos, if the Russian currency is cheaper, then the budget revenues will grow, in a conversation with Forbes, senior analyst at the AMCH investment-analytical company Daniil Tun. But at the same time, the costs of procurement, duty service and much more will increase, he adds. “The balance is fragile. The stability of the budget is the result of a thin setup: when a ruble year is higher than 90 per dollar, income is growing, below – there are problems with filling. Therefore, the government will hold the ruble weak, but not failure, ”the expert awaits. What will happen to the ruble and what does Trump’s trading war be here? Although the ruble and Russian assets look like a quiet harbor during a tariff storm, most analysts agree that this is temporarily, most likely, most likely, by speculative factors, primarily geopolitical, primarily geopolitical, primarily geopolitical. He believes the investment strategist of the Aricapital management company Sergey Suverov. According to him, this movement is not yet a sustainable nature: “It is clear that the budget, which has a rate of 96 rubles per dollar, will receive temporary difficulties due to strengthening the ruble.” The ruble will fall in relation to the dollar and Yuan until the end of the year, the analyst of the Finams investment company Alexander Potavin told RBC. “In the spring and early summer of 2025, the trading range by a pair of Yuan/ruble will be 11.2–12.8 rubles. The process of weakening the ruble course relative to the yuan, apparently, will be assigned to the second half of 2025. By the end of the year, we expect Yuan in the region of 13.3–13.7 rubles, ”he summed up. He sums up on the ruble and the policy of trading protectionism, pursued by the administration of Donald Trump. The risk of recession in the world – which the team of the American president itself is now talking about – is already reflected in a decrease in prices for raw materials, primarily for oil. This poses a threat of reducing export revenues and weakening the budget, said RBC, the leading researcher at the RANEPA Alexander Firanchuk. On this background, the reinforced concrete stability of the ruble looks anomalous, the former head of the Aricapital Alexei Tretyakov wrote. In his opinion, this is due to the lack of a full -fledged foreign exchange market – foreign investors have gone, importers get rid of stocks, and there is simply nothing to buy currency. According to the economist, at the current oil prices, the dollar should cost at least 95 rubles, and in the case of further decline – more than 100. Sanctions are still dangerous, forecasts are losing meaning, the future is vaguely of the five main conclusions about the Russian economy, according to the results of 2024, the forecasts are losing meaning, the future is foggy of the Russian economy on the results of 2024 Armagles Armeduns (Tagstotranslate) News
