Uploads and turbulence usually go hand in the markets. The greatest profits in history are almost always produced in bearish periods, and the current one is no exception. Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90 -day pause in the application of tariffs caused the S&P 500 to be scheduled on Wednesday by 9.52%, the largest rise since 2008 and the third of more caliber since World War II, while Nasdaq added 12.16%, its best record since 2001 and the second in history. Today the IBEX has marked the best opening of its history, 8.59% in its first change, but at the end it has ended up rising half that at the opening, 4.32%. Nevertheless, the best session in three years. A percentage almost identical to 4.49% of German Dax and 4.22% of the Euro Stoxx 50, exceeding 3.83% in France and 3.04% in London. The levy of the taxes announced by Washington occurred with the already closed European stock markets, so that the impact have collected today. The markets twisted Donald Trump’s arm after the most intense episode of market volatility since the first days of the pandemic; The euphoria was expected after the president’s reverse. But in Wall Street investors have taken little to collect candles. The pause does not eliminate either generic tariffs or punishment to China (145%) or the specific ones to the engine, steel, aluminum, already certain imports from Mexico and Canada. As JP Morgan economists point out, the tariff truce is “simply the end of the beginning”, and almost all the analysis houses advise against entering the market (and some recommend taking advantage of to sell). The commercial war is far from finishing, and with less tariffs the economic impact will be less severe, but it will exist. And there are doubts about what extent it is collected in prices. In parallel, at noon the inflation data has been known in the US, which reflects the first monthly price drop since May 2020, to leave the year -on -year inflation in 2.4%, thanks to gasoline. The data is better than expected (an increase of 0.1% monthly) was foreseen and it represents a certain relief in inflationary pressures, waiting for the impact of the commercial war. The increases in some Ibex, stratospheric values in the opening, have simply bullage. Values with exposure to the US leads the market: IAG wins 5.43% (it reached 20%), 7.68% fluid and Grifols 7.7%. But they highlight, above all, the banks of the bank: Santander, Caixabank, BBVA, Sabadell and Bankinter rise more than 5%. And the increases are more shy in defensive profile values, which have better endured the storm, such as Telefónica, Iberdrola, Repsol, Redeia or Naturgy, all between 1.5% and 2.5%. In Europe, earnings are also widespread. Among the best of the euro Stoxx 600 are from oil companies such as Tullow Oil to Risk Capital Funds (EQT), technological such as Infineon, consumption values such as Pandora or Adidas, in addition to banks such as Unicredit. In Asia, the increases has oscillated between 3% and 9%, shortly after the tariffs of 84% from China to the United States and those of 1455 in reverse have entered into force. In the almost exact week elapsed since Trump, already with the closed market, announced the tariff avalanche and its withdrawal (with the Chinese exception), the S&P 500 fell more than 12%, 11% for the Ibex. The perspective of a recession on which more and more investment analysts and banks, combined with the inflationary effect of rates evaporated 9.2 billion capitalization of world bags, equivalent to half of the European GDP, and unleashed the critical voices of large entrepreneurs, Wall Street operators and investment bankers, to which they also joined reproaches Republican. But the key was in the fixed income market: since Monday, the price of the United States Treasury debt, traditionally considered a refuge value, fell without brake and yields, which move the price, fired. The pressure was shown, until the US president had to give his arm to twist. “You have to be flexible,” Trump said after announcing the measure and after several days he was firm with his initial decision. “The bond market is complicated. I was watching it and if you look at it now, it’s beautiful. But yesterday people were getting a little nervous,” admitted the president. Also in this market Trump’s announcement has been somewhat ephemeral. The 10 -year US bonus yield, which in Wednesday’s session came to rise more than 20 basic points before knowing the suspension to 4.5% and closing at 4.35%, remains stable today. The 30 -year bonus, which touched 5% on Wednesday before the White House announcement, rises its performance to 4.84%. Neither of the two is far from the levels considered critical by the market and that unleashed the intervention: 4.5% (for 10 years) and 5% (by 30). The relief is also relative to analysts’ eyes: Goldman Sachs has reduced its probability of 45% recession after Trump’s decision, from the previous 65%, stating that tariffs that remain in force are probably probably in a 15% increase in the general tariff rate. Several surveys already point to a slowdown in business investment and household spending due to concern for the impact of tariffs. A study of Reuters/Ipsos has revealed that three out of four Americans foresee an increase in prices in the coming months. “The uncertainty will remain foreseeably at high levels, global distrust has come to stay and the possibility of future new corrections in risk assets is very real,” they point out from Macroyield. Bolsas – Currency – Debt – Interest rates – Raw materials (tagstotranslate) Bag
