US President Donald Trump threatens Iran with large -scale bombing if Tehran refuses the new nuclear deal. At the same time, the American president claims that he would prefer to conclude an agreement with Tehran – the United States has left Iran during the previous Trump period. Washington increases pressure on the power of the Islamic Republic and is already increasing the presence of aircraft carriers in the Middle East. This week, according to Trump, the parties will hold a “very big meeting” to discuss the possibility of a compromise. Previously, Iran evaded direct negotiations, and the spiritual leader of the country Ali Khamenei stated that in the event of an attack by the United States, they would face a “tough answer”. But which one? “Medusa” tells what measures the Islamic Republic can resort to – and why citizens of the USA and Israel around the world can be under threat. Washington has two scenarios of attacks on Iran. The American army can conduct bombing of the country (and most importantly, two nuclear objects in Natanze and Fordo) either in conjunction with Israeli military air forces, or Israel will completely take the operation. It is not difficult to predict the result of such blows: Iranian air defense is unlikely to be able to resist – and the ground infrastructure of both nuclear objects will be destroyed. If the operation is involved in the operations of the B-2 and the GBU-57 anti-Bunker bombers, then the noticeable damage will be caused to their underground part. In its defense strategy against possible attacks, Iran always focuses on a response strike on the United States and Israel. True, over the past year, the possibilities of the Iranian authorities have significantly reduced. Some of their allies – the Lebanese Hezbollah – suffered serious losses as a result of the Israeli invasion. Others – the Bashar al -Assad regime in Syria – completely ceased to exist. Therefore, pondering a possible retaliatory blow, Tehran will rely primarily on their own strengths, and not regional partners. Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic still has enough options that Iran can resort to in a variety of combinations. The option is the first: Tiegran’s response to the Israeliyal response to the possible joint operation of the American and Israeli military can be strokes on the territory of Israel. Moreover, in 2024, Iranian missiles and drones had already attacked the country twice (although they caused only limited damage). So, during the second operation, Iran involved about 200 ballistic missiles, some of which pierced the Israeli air defense system – and damaged auxiliary buildings at the Nevatim military base. Of course, in previous shots in the Israeli territory, Tehran did not demonstrate his entire military potential. However, Israel remains one of the most protected territories in terms of air defense, which means a difficult goal for the Iranian answer. Therefore, the response of Israel is unlikely to be considered as the main scenario of the development of events. After the attack of Hamas on Israel throughout the Middle East, “Iranian proxy” intensified how well Tehran controls “Hizball”, Khusitov and other groups? After the attack of Hamas on Israel, “Iranian proxies” intensified throughout the Middle East ”how well Tehran controls “Hizballo”, Husitov and other groups? Option of the second: a blow to the American military bases on the near eastern bases of the United States are located in various parts of the region: in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Catarus, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. As of the end of 2024, the total number of American military in the Middle East was estimated at about 40 thousand people. Such bases have repeatedly attacked the proactive forces. In January 2024, the Iranian drone, who launched the Shiite group from Iraq, broke through the air defense air base in Jordan. Then three American military were killed. In January 2020, after the murder of Iranian General Kasem Suleimani, on the orders of Donald Trump, the military-space forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Corps (KSIR) struck two American facilities in Iraq. More than 100 people received contusion. The US bases in the Middle East look one of the most likely targets for a response Iranian blow. They are dispersed throughout the region – and this complicates their defense. The past experience has shown that it is much easier to break through the air defense of American military objects than to penetrate through the dense and multilayer Israeli defense system. The main threat in the event of such a blow is the inevitable response from the US Air Force. The option is the third: a blow to the US allies, the concept of the concept that Iran adheres to, American allies can become a means of pressure on Washington. Therefore, Tehran can deliver a response to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Katar, Bahrain or Iraq. Iran no time had already warned the countries of the region that he would consider any support of the possible US operation as a hostile act. Including the use of the airspace or the territory of these states by the American military. For recently, Tehran established relations with Riyadh-and against this background, Saudi Arabia was emphasized neutrally during the exchange of strokes between Israel and Iran in 2024. It is unlikely that the Iranian side in its already difficult situation will intentionally want to deliberately spoil relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, with which Tehran has recently managed to achieve relative normalization. Therefore, only American military bases on the territory of these states can be attacked. A blow to other objects will be a clear increase in conflict rates, possible only under special circumstances. Trump rifles accidentally added a journalist to a closed chat, where they discussed husits in Yemen. And they did not even notice this after the bombing, they exchanged Emoji Trump rocker accident accidentally added a journalist to a closed chat, where they discussed the blows of the Hussites in Yemen. And they did not even notice this after the bombing, they exchanged Emoji Variant Four: the overlap of Ormuzsky spilled in recent decades Iran regularly threatens to block in the event of American aggression. This corridor is key to the global hydrocarbons market. About 1/6 of global oil and 1/3 of liquefied gas passes through it. Such a step can seriously destabilize the economic situation around the world. It is far from necessary to go for examples: the Yemenic Husites, having much smaller resources, successfully prevent the passage of commercial ships through the Red Sea. Problems with this option in another. Today, China, not the United States, depends on the Strait of the Strait today: about half of the entire imported China oil passes along this route. Such a step will only indirectly harm the interests of the United States, but at the same time will ruin the relationship with Beijing – the main trading partner of Tehran. The bout of the Strait of the Ormuzian Strait – a step with the far -reaching consequences for the world economy, which Iran is quite easy to fulfill. Nevertheless, because of China’s interests, this option remains not the most probable. The option is the fifth: the arrest of US citizens in Iranian use of Iranians with dual citizenship as hostages is the usual tactics for the Islamic Republic. After the United States, a large Iranian diaspora has developed, many representatives of which do not lose touch with their homeland. Therefore, many people with two citizens, American and Iranian lives in the country. Iran’s ligatures often use them for political purposes. The owners of American citizenship are arrested, then to exchange Iranians who are important for the regime in Tehran for the detained in the United States. Or for pressure on Washington. In 2023, Iran’s authorities released five American citizens in exchange for defrosting six billion dollars in Banks of South Korea. This option looks most painless for Iran: the authorities will act in their own jurisdiction against people who are not able to repulse. However, you should not expect a special effect from such a measure either. It is unlikely that the arrest of several American citizens will be a big blow to the Trump administration. I set a “thaw”: Western services will unlock in an authoritarian country, cancel repressive laws and give the opposition’s voice all this is true – but not in Russia, but in Iran. And why? The “thaw” has come: Western services will unlock in an authoritarian country, cancel repressive laws and give the vote of the opposition all this and not in Russia, but in Iran. And why? The sixth version: the attempt on citizens of the United States and Israel throughout the world past Tehran has repeatedly responded to Israeli and the United States with attacks on the diplomatic objects of these countries or their citizens at different points in the world. The most famous examples are explosions of the barracks of American and French peacekeepers and the Israeli embassy. However, in recent times, Iran had been successfully successfully conducting such operations. The security forces of Israel and the United States have learned to prevent such threats. In 2022, the Iranian intelligence agencies tried to organize attempts on Israeli citizens in Turkey, but failed. The Iranian side could really turn to terrorism-and given a huge number of potential goals, such a scenario can become one of the most painful for Tiegran’s opponents. Creatures of the seventh: the creation of nuclear weapons on the need to return to the development of nuclear weapons in Iran still In 2024. With renewed vigor, they broke out after the threats of the American president. On April 6, the deputy of the Iranian parliament (Majlis) Mohammad Kasim Osmani said that his country has no other way to protect himself, except to create nuclear weapons. It is likely that Tehran can perceive the potential strokes of Israel and the United States as a point of no return – and will cease to limit himself to develop nuclear weapons. However, possible attacks on key nuclear facilities will reject the country several years ago in a technological plan. The restoration of atomic infrastructure will take more than one year. Nevertheless, in the long run, the development of nuclear weapons Iran can become one of the most alarming challenges for safety and stability in the Middle East. “I do not consider Trump a new order architect, but he can drive the last nail into the coffin of the old” US foreign policy, Stephen Vertheim, why Trumpu trade wars and why he is quarreling with Ukraine “I don’t think I do not think Trump is an architect of a new order, but he can drive the last nail into the coffin of the old “US foreign policy, Stephen Vertheim – about why Trump Trump’s wars and why he quarrels with the Ukrainian department” Dismantlery ” (Tagstotranslate) News
