At the auction on Friday, April 18, the yuan course on Mosbirzh for the first time since the beginning of last summer fell below 11 rubles, and the dollar in the interbank market cheaper to 80.8 rubles – the minimum level from June 2023. Experts associate this with the sharp cost of the American and Chinese currencies against the backdrop of the US tariff confrontation with the PRC. Also, the strengthening of the ruble is facilitated by the increased influx of foreign investment in Russia and the preservation of the record high rate of the Central Bank. Is it worth expecting serious changes in the course dynamics until the end of spring – in the material of RT. On Friday, April 18, the Yuan course on the Moscow Exchange decreased by 0.91% and for the first time since June 2024 reached 10.96 rubles. At the same time, the dollar in the interbank market was cheaper by 1.76%-up to 80.78 rubles, which became the minimum value from the beginning of the summer of 2023, and the cost of the euro fell by 1.78%-up to 91.64 rubles, according to the Famy Plates Platforms. As the leading analyst “Figure Broacher” Natalia Pyryeva, the Russian currency is confidently valuable against the background of global weakening American. Over the past three weeks, the dollar index (DXY) has fallen by almost 5% to the basket of other reserve monetary units and reached the lowest level in three years. The reason for this was the introduction of the United States of increased import duties, the interlocutor of RT believes. Recall that in early April, US President Donald Trump announced a state of emergency in the country due to the threat of trade deficit and established restrictions on the supply of goods from more than 200 states. After a number of partners turned to Washington with a request to start negotiations to discuss the reduction or removal of barriers, the American administration postponed the introduction of tariffs for 90 days for everyone except China. Also on the topic “We will not tolerate pressure and intimidation”: China will respond to American duties with tariffs in the amount of 125% of China’s authorities announced the increase in duties for the supply of goods from the United States to 125%. The decision was made in response to a similar step with … “Duties threaten international trade and, as a result, the global economy, and also reduce investors’ trust in the dollar. As a result, we are now observing the renewal of money from dollar assets to protective instruments, for example, to gold, the price of which beats historical records, ”explained Natalia Pyryeva. At the same time, the yuan is also observed on the world market. As the head of the Alfa-Forman customer support department, Alexander Shneiderman, explained to RT, China can deliberately weaken its own currency to make its goods cheaper for American buyers and thereby reduce the effect of American duties. “In addition, the current strengthening of the ruble may also be due to the fact that stable demand for our government securities has formed in foreign markets. Foreigners are now actively buying up Russian federal loan bonds (OFZs), ”the specialist said. Indeed, the government was also announced in the government about the increased tributary of foreign capital to Russia. According to the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in the conditions of a changing geopolitical situation, the country’s market began to act more Western investments. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance noted that cash flows go to the Russian Federation through various schemes and mechanisms for bypassing sanctions. “This is the so-called cowboy money of hedge funds, which even risk the sanctions regime, so that through friendly jurisdictions to start a little money (to Russia.-RT). This is evident from the dynamics of the prices for OFZ and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate-that some such streams are slowly starting to come in, ”TASS quotes the word deputy head of the Ministry of Finance Ivan Chebeskov. The mixing of the balance of the ruble is displayed between demand and proposal in the country’s foreign exchange market, Natalia Pyryeva believes. According to her, exporting companies now exchange the earned dollars, euro and yuan for rubles on the eve of dividend payments. Thus, the supply of foreign banknotes in the market has increased, and the demand for them is still quite low due to weak imports. Against this background, an overabundance of foreign currencies was formed in the country – and they fell aside relative to the Russian one. Gettyimages.ru © Max Zolotukhin In addition, a strict monetary policy (DCP) of the Central Bank of Russia is still a favorable factor for the ruble, analysts emphasize. Recall that from October 2024, the Central Bank holds a key rate at a record high level-21% per annum. As a result, the business has to exchange the available currency reserves for rubles to finance its activities. At the same time, the influx of funds of companies and citizens on ruble deposits is growing. Thus, the demand for the Russian currency is additionally increasing, which leads to a rise in the cost of the ruble. Also on the topic “The period of the high key rate will not be endless”: Nabiullina spoke about the prospects for inflation and policies of the Central Bank, the period of high key rate in Russia will be long, but not endless, said the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina …. However, in the coming months, the balance of factors may move towards the weakening of the Russian currency. This point of view in a conversation with RT was expressed by the expert on the BCS World Investment Stock Market Alexander Shepelev. “The Central Bank will probably give all softer signals regarding the further prospects of the DCP. At the same time, imports will be restored, and the demand for foreign currencies by travelers will begin to increase. At the same time, export revenue in May can be reduced due to a recent drop in oil prices, ”Shepelev suggested. By the end of April, the courses can still lower up to 10.8 rubles for Yuan, 79-80 rubles per dollar and 90 rubles per euro. Meanwhile, by the beginning of the summer, values are most likely to rise to levels of 12, 88–90 and 96–97 rubles, respectively, the expert is not excluded. A for example, Alexander Schneiderman adheres to a similar assessment. However, in his opinion, the course of Russian-American negotiations to resolve the situation in Ukraine will remain an important factor for the course dynamics. According to our forecast, at the beginning of May, the courses will be set in the corridors of 10.8-11.8 rubles for Yuan, 80–88 rubles per dollar and 88–95 rubles per euro, ”concluded the interlocutor of RT.
